UK Economics Weekly Inflation’s dip should keep the MPC hawks at bay The markets are probably right to conclude that June’s drop in inflation, from 2.9% to 2.6%, has reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate rise. Admittedly, the dip in inflation needn’t rule out a... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong investment to bolster economic growth At this week’s ECB press conference, President Mario Draghi highlighted the continued improvement in the euro-zone’s economic performance. He reiterated that the region looks set for a period of solid... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Meteoric rise in the dollar will soon run out of fizz The recent rise in the Australian dollar to a two-and-a-half year high of just under US$0.80 has been meteoric. But while the dollar may orbit around that level for a bit, we don't think it will be... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack High-street spending ends Q2 on stronger footing The squeeze in real wages looks likely to intensify as inflation continues to rise to around 3%. However, nominal spending should continue to hold up well, supported by strong employment growth... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Fall in inflation dampens rate hike expectations The release of weaker-than-expected inflation data for June has seen the chances of an imminent rate hike diminish. Nonetheless, investors still see it as a distinct possibility before the end of the... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland Consumer Prices (Jul.) July’s rise in headline inflation was driven entirely by higher house prices and far overstates the extent of price pressures in Iceland. With underlying inflation set to stay below zero, we expect... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further reductions to Board’s inflation forecasts still needed The Bank of Japan upgraded its assessment of the economy yet again at today’s meeting. But the Board’s inflation forecasts remain far too optimistic even after renewed downgrades. We reiterate our... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Strong growth, weak inflation We expect the current period of strong economic growth in advanced economies to continue for the next year or two, led by rising household consumption and business investment. In many countries the... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While June’s unexpectedly large drop in CPI inflation is unlikely to prove a turning point, it will nonetheless help to keep the MPC’s hawks in the minority. 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation remained in negative territory last month, although the introduction of new “sin” taxes on sugary drinks and tobacco caused the rate of decline ease. And there are reasons to think... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2) The weaker tone of the inflation data for the second quarter has already caused the New Zealand dollar to weaken back below US$0.73 and the dollar may yet fall below US$0.70 as the markets realise... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can consumers survive the pay squeeze? With the effects of the lower pound appearing to be fading at the start of the production line, CPI inflation looks to have almost peaked already and we think that it will gradually start to head down... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
