India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) Today’s CPI data for January confirm that the Reserve Bank was successful in meeting its near-term inflation target but also highlight the difficult task the RBI faces in achieving its medium-term... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Oil price falls won’t prevent inflation pick-up January’s consumer prices figures should show a continuing movement away from deflation. While falling oil prices are being passed through to lower fuel prices at the pump, fuel price deflation will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What will the Bank of Japan do next? The Bank of Japan unveiled a negative interest rate policy two weeks ago because it concluded that more forceful action was needed to lift inflation. Now, with equities slumping and the yen soaring to... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay in double digits for most of this year Egyptian inflation came in at 10.1% y/y in January and, with a looming devaluation of the pound and the government preparing the ground for a fresh round of subsidy cuts, it is likely to remain in (or... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank cuts rates, but more work is needed Today’s decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to cut its repo rate further below zero demonstrated that it is prepared to set aside its worries about a housing market bubble and strong domestic demand in... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen sticks to view that interest rates will rise gradually Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress today revealed that, while the FOMC might not be ready to raise interest rates for a second time in March, she still anticipates a “gradual” series of... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls Our full analysis of the prospects for the Australian and New Zealand economies is contained in our Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook (sent to clients on 27th January), but in this note we... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Icelandic rates on hold but more policy tightening to come Although Iceland’s central bank decided today to keep its key interest rates unchanged again, upward inflation pressures and domestic economic strength mean that rate hikes are likely later this year... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Zika virus unlikely to have major economic impact The Zika virus has hit the headlines in recent weeks due to its rapid spread across Latin America and the suspected link with thousands of cases of serious birth defects in Brazil. But, while it is... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low oil prices give Turkey temporary reprieve Lower oil prices and a more dovish US Fed have given the Turkish economy a stay of execution and, as a result, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.0% in 2016 (from 1.5%... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jan.) The jump in Mexican inflation in January, to 2.6% y/y, from 2.1% y/y in December, was due to a sharp rise in food inflation, which is likely to have been driven in part by a weaker currency. But with... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations – are they really falling? The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The surge in Chilean inflation in January was largely due to planned tax increases and had been anticipated. As such, we don’t expect it to a trigger a policy response from the central bank and... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
