Latin America Economics Focus Has Brazil blown it? There are good reasons to think that the recession in Brazil – which is now the worst since at least the 1930s – should start to ease this year. But the good news ends here. While growth should return... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The usual raft of activity data for January showed that, following an awful December, conditions in the Russian economy improved at the start of this year. Encouragingly, there are early signs that... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela’s economic measures too little too late The move by Venezuelan policymakers to devalue the official exchange rates and raise fuel prices will help to ease the pressure on the public finances, but the measures fall chronically short of what... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EM oil producers on the cusp of a crisis? A wave of debt defaults and financial stress in emerging market oil producers seems unlikely but, with energy prices set to stay low, growth is likely to be much weaker than most anticipate. Among the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan.) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jan. 16) Although Sweden’s headline inflation rate rose by more than expected in January, the upward trend is far from assured. As such, we still see a strong possibility of additional policy easing by the... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Can China turn itself around? The inept response by China’s policymakers to the pressures of the last few months has rightly diminished confidence in their ability to handle the structural transition China faces in the years ahead... 17th February 2016 · 14 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jan.) South African inflation accelerated to 6.2% y/y in January in what we believe is the beginning of a food price-driven inflationary spike. Elevated inflation will add to dilemma facing the SARB. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to follow others in adopting negative rates Although a number of other central banks have now adopted negative policy rates, the chances of the Fed following suit are pretty small. Even if US economic conditions deteriorated, we suspect that... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jan.) January’s consumer prices release showed the UK moved further away from deflation – due to easing fuel price deflation rather than a core-price inflation rise. 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Food prices surge ahead of Spring Festival celebrations Swings in food prices around Chinese New Year will have caused inflation to jump in January. This pick-up may partly reverse this month but the bigger picture is that inflation still looks set to rise... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation unexpectedly dropped in January but, looking ahead, it still looks set to return to positive territory in Q1. 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will a stronger yen derail the BoJ’s efforts to hit 2% inflation? The recent appreciation of the yen, even if sustained for longer, should not have a major impact on external demand nor consumer prices. However, it will lower corporate profits and could reduce firms... 15th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the debt crisis back? There are ominous signs that the turmoil in financial markets is starting to have bigger effects on the euro-zone. While Q4’s GDP figures showed growth maintained its pace at the end of last year, the... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Jan.) The fall in Polish inflation in January, to a weaker-than-expected -0.7% y/y, appears to be due to a decline in core inflation. Accordingly, these figures raise the risk that the new-look MPC will... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
