Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Most EM central banks in easing mode Despite the focus in advanced economies on the timing of monetary policy tightening, the majority of EMs remain in easing mode. More EM central banks cut their policy interest rates than raised them... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is it Amazon’s fault that the Fed can’t hit its inflation target? The shift to online sales is having a transformative effect on the retail industry, but does not explain the weakness in core inflation, either this year specifically or the Fed’s more general failure... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The increases in headline and core inflation in July are consistent with the recent improvement in economic growth and raise the probability of a second rate hike by the Bank of Canada before December... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling dollar bolsters case for more rate hikes Even if the dollar doesn’t weaken any further, the 7% depreciation in trade weighted terms already seen this year will help support GDP growth via the resulting boost to exports. But the recent moves... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What is the Taylor Rule telling us? In recent years, policy rates in advanced economies have been set much lower than the levels implied by John Taylor’s original rule, which he formulated in the early 1990s. But once we account for the... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Toronto housing market down and out Resale housing activity in Toronto plunged more than 40% last month and signs point to continued weakness in August. In similar fashion to Vancouver, resale activity will likely flounder over the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay on hold for a while longer The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today and the accompanying monetary policy statement suggests the central bank is in no rush to adjust rates any time soon. We are maintaining... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) Although CPI inflation held steady in July, we still think that it will inch up a bit further before the end of this year, as well as outpace wage growth for a while yet. 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jul.) & Finnish GDP (Q2) July’s jump in Swedish inflation is partly due to a methodological change in the way that package holiday prices are tracked. Yet even excluding this effect, underlying inflation has picked up and... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Indian consumer price inflation accelerated in July, and we think that it will rise further over the coming months. As such, further monetary policy loosening looks unlikely. 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
