US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe set to shine while Russia continues to struggle We expect the economies of Central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) to perform well over 2016-17. Consumer spending looks set to stay strong, while export sectors will... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will the Gulf finance budget deficits this year? Low oil prices mean that budget deficits will persist for some time in the GCC and we think these countries will shift away from a reliance on savings towards issuing debt to plug the gap this year... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation will force the Fed to act soon We are often characterised as being “bullish” on the US economy, but our economic growth forecasts are hardly upbeat. Instead, where we really differ from the consensus is in believing that even... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a six-month low of 9.1% y/y in February may make policymakers more confident to push ahead with a devaluation of the pound. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb.) The jump in food inflation last month was seasonal and will prove short-lived. Price pressures elsewhere are likely to pick up in coming quarters but should stop short of becoming a constraint on... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s political crisis takes dramatic turn Brazil’s financial markets rallied after news broke last week that former President Lula had been detained (and later released) in relation to the ongoing corruption probe at Petrobras. But this... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why has the oil windfall been felt unevenly across EMs Consumer spending growth has risen far more sharply in Emerging Europe than in Emerging Asia over the past year and a half, even though both regions have received a similar boost from the drop in oil... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in February to 2.9% y/y from 2.5% y/y in January, was due largely to a pick-up in food inflation, rather than an increase in general price pressures. Even so... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Feb.) The fall in Brazilian inflation in February, to 10.4% y/y from 10.7% y/y in January, was driven entirely by the unwinding of the impact of regulated price hikes implemented in the same period last... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Feb.) The smaller-than-expected fall in Chilean inflation in February suggests that price pressures remain strong. This creates a dilemma for the central bank, which is likely to be reluctant to hike rates... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jan.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in January, of 5.6% y/y, supports our view that the economy is set for another year of robust growth. Nonetheless, the underlying... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to edge down but scope for loosening limited Inflation is likely to have edged down in February as food price pressures have shown signs of abating. The chances of there being perhaps one more rate cut in the near term have risen, but this is... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence & Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The sharp fall in consumer confidence last month shows that the recent market turmoil has taken its toll on sentiment and suggests that households may cut spending further this quarter. What’s more... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How successful has Hungary’s unorthodox monetary policy been? Hungary’s National Bank has radically reorganised its monetary policy framework over the past couple of years, in the process moving away from interest rate cuts and turning to increasingly unorthodox... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to rise, but not by enough to worry policymakers Inflation looks to have bottomed out and is set to rise across most of Emerging Asia over the coming year. However, it will remain relatively low in most places, meaning central banks will be able to... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
