US Economics Weekly Is the rise in auto loans a concern? The rapid growth of auto loans in recent years has prompted claims that the next unsustainable debt bubble is emerging. For now, however, there appears to be little cause for concern. Although the... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly How long will deflation last this time? The euro-zone’s latest bout of deflation is likely to prove fairly short -lived. But the medium-term inflation outlook is far too weak for the ECB’s comfort and the threat of a deflationary spiral is... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update New Year effect pushes up inflation A spike in food prices due to Chinese New Year looks likely to have caused inflation to pick up further in February. Once seasonal volatility has faded, we expect inflation to rise further this year... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The much weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 8.8% y/y, adds to reasons to think that the central bank will continue to resist hiking interest rates. But the key point is... 3rd March 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch at the National People’s Congress China’s annual National People’s Congress starts on Saturday. Among the headline announcements are likely to be GDP growth targets for this year and beyond that are unrealistically high and will do... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation is back... again Recent evidence of a slowdown in the euro-zone’s economic recovery has been accompanied by a drop in consumer price inflation back below zero in February. The fall was partly down to food and energy... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s drop in euro-zone CPI inflation back into negative territory clearly intensifies the pressure on the ECB to announce a decisive increase in its policy support following its meeting next... 29th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Stubbornly high inflation adding to the pain The rebound in headline inflation in January back to the mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range illustrates that the markedly weaker Canadian dollar isn’t all good news. Strong goods... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Why is the euro-zone economy slowing? Last week’s data brought further evidence that growth in the euro-zone economy has slowed in the first quarter of this year. That no doubt partly reflects the heightened concerns over the global... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, French & Spanish Flash CPI (Feb.) German CPI data revealed that inflation fell back below zero in February and, alongside weak readings for French and Spanish inflation, suggested that the eurozone has re-entered deflation. 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will weak productivity help to reach 2% inflation? Weak productivity developments pose some upside risks to inflation, particularly in services. However, this will be more than offset by the impact of lower consumer import prices on goods inflation... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Philippines presidential election: runners and riders Political campaigning in the Philippines ahead of presidential elections due on 9 th May is now well underway. Grace Poe, an independent candidate and adopted daughter of Fernando Poe, a defeated... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) We estimate that the Bank of Japan’s new favourite inflation measure moderated in January. In light of falling import prices and sluggish economic activity, we think that the slowdown in underlying... 26th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Price pressures from currency slumps set to fade Sharp falls in currencies pushed up inflation in Emerging Europe and Latin America last year. The impact in Emerging Europe has already started to unwind and we expect the same in Latin America before... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How much of an inflationary threat is the labour market? The labour market has been rapidly tightening, but there are reasons to think that this won’t feed into a surge in wage growth soon. Indeed, we think there is at least some slack left in the labour... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is another bubble inflating in Japan’s housing market? There has been some recent talk of froth returning to Japan’s housing market but prices, other than for condominiums, are not rising at a rapid rate. With debt levels also stable, there are no signs... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
