China Economics Update Fall in inflation will be short-lived Consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen further in August, dragged down by a drop in food price inflation. But this will mask a continued pick-up in broader price pressures that is set to... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Real rates in Sweden set to fall to 40-year low With the Riksbank on hold, rising inflation means that real interest rates in Sweden are set to drop to a 40-year low. Such an accommodative stance seems unnecessary given the sound economic outlook... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss GDP (Q2) & CPI (Aug.) Q2’s healthy rise in Swiss GDP suggests that the economy was coping well with the franc’s continued strength, but the increase was flattered by temporary factors. And while CPI inflation edged up in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Is the Philippines overheating? Rapid economic growth, surging imports and strong credit growth have fuelled fears that the Philippines is overheating and that the central bank will be soon be forced to hike interest rates to bring... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New RBI governor faces hard task in meeting targets CPI inflation data for August are likely to show that the headline rate eased a touch, but remained some way above the Reserve Bank’s 5.0% target for March 2017. With the new governor, Dr Urjit Patel... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Turkish inflation in August, to 8.0% y/y, is likely to be used as justification by the central bank for further modest interest rate cuts. Nonetheless, we remain of... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling already supporting the economy While there are already signs of the inflationary impact of the fall in sterling starting to make its way through the supply chain, the drop appears to be providing some support to the economy. Indeed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Households have become more upbeat about the outlook for their personal finances, which suggests that the recent jump in the household saving rate should reverse before long. By contrast, the renewed... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus How to think about monetary policy after Rajan The appointment of Dr Urjit Patel as the new governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) gives a strong indication of policy continuity at the central bank, and strengthens our view that the easing... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB may extend QE programme again Recent news on the economy has reduced the pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide further policy stimulus at its forthcoming policy meeting on 8th September. But the weakness of price... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Could policymakers cope with another downturn? Policymakers gathering in Jackson Hole last week highlighted that a fall in equilibrium real interest rates means that central banks may have little room to cut rates in the event of another recession... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but further tightening still likely The central bank in Sri Lanka (CBSL) today left interest rates on hold despite a continued acceleration in credit growth, high inflation and a weak currency. We think another interest rate hike is... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
