Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank shrugs off inflation dip Peru’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% last night, and while there could be scope to ease policy a little further in the next 3-6 months, as things stand we expect rates... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update MAS to keep monetary policy supportive The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its monetary policy settings unchanged. The accompanying statement gives the MAS room to tighten policy if necessary, but given the subdued outlook... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) While headline consumer price inflation was unchanged last month, core inflation rose again. Policymakers will put less weight on the erratic industrial production data that were also released today... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation remained above the Riksbank’s target in September and, with the economy performing strongly, domestic price pressures will continue to build. We therefore expect the Riksbank to start... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target Although some measures have edged higher in recent months, we doubt that core inflation will return to the 2% inflation target anytime soon. Even if the output gap closes by the end of this year, the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian and Danish Consumer Prices (Sep.) While Norwegian inflation picked up in September, domestic price pressures remain subdued and inflation is unlikely to meet the Norges Bank’s target any time soon. We therefore think that interest... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) Egyptian inflation edged down further in September and we expect it to fall sharply in the coming months, prompting the central bank to start cutting interest rates. 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The drop in Mexican inflation last month is likely to be the start of a rapid downwards trend and we expect the headline rate to fall back into the central bank’s target range by the middle of next... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Sep.) The rise in Czech inflation to a five-year high of 2.7% y/y in September supports our view that the next hike in the policy interest rate – taking it from 0.25% to 0.50% – will come at the CNB Board... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Mid-Autumn Festival distortions drag down inflation We expect consumer price inflation to have fallen in September as a shift in the timing of Mid-Autumn Festival probably caused a drop in food price inflation last month. This will reverse in October... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s data confirm that the sharp drop in inflation in Brazil is bottoming out. This supports the view that Copom is likely to slow the pace of easing at this month’s policy meeting. 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore: MAS in no rush to tighten Given the subdued outlook for inflation, we think the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will leave its policy settings unchanged not just at next week’s meeting, but throughout 2018 as well. In... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Core price pressures are building Consumer price inflation is likely to have accelerated further in September, due in large part to another rise in vegetable price inflation. Core price pressures are also building, meaning there is no... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
