Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The improvement in consumer confidence in September suggests that the recent surge in the household saving rate is unlikely to continue. Another positive sign is that inflation expectations seem to be... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Mixed message about euro-zone growth Recent activity indicators have provided mixed messages about euro-zone growth. The Composite PMI fell to an 18-month low in September, whereas the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) reached a... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, same story By leaving interest rates at 1.5% and the policy statement mostly unchanged at his first meeting as Governor, Philip Lowe showed he is cut from much the same cloth as his predecessor. But while Lowe... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that Russia’s gradual recovery continued at the end of Q3, while growth in Central Europe was relatively strong. Elsewhere, the sharper-than-expected fall in... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is euro-zone growth picking up or slowing? The euro-zone’s two main activity surveys have given conflicting evidence about the state of the economy at the end of the third quarter, with the Composite PMI apparently pointing to slowing GDP... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) Headline inflation in the euro-zone has started to pick up as the effects of previous falls in energy prices fade. But with a large amount of slack in the labour market, underlying price pressures... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Offshoring, the yen & inflation Japanese manufacturers continue to increase production in their overseas subsidiaries. However, only a fraction of the goods produced overseas are re-imported to Japan. With the overall importance of... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the consumer spending data send conflicting messages for Q3 GDP growth, the solid rise in industrial production in August strongly suggests that Japan’s economy continued to recover in the third... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s rise in German inflation to +0.5% suggests that euro-zone inflation rose to a 23-month high in the same month. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy effects while underlying... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Sep.) While the EC Business and Consumer Survey revealed a rise in sentiment in September, it still suggests that growth remains moderate and inflation expectations are weak. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The envy of the advanced world The growth rates enjoyed by Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter continue to be the envy of most advanced nations. The 3.3% and 3.6% respective rises in GDP over the last year were much... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Even though small business confidence remains consistent with falling industrial production despite a rebound in September, firms’ forecasts for October suggest that conditions are on the mend. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch New governor to opt for policy continuity Much of the commentary in the run-up to Dr Urjit Patel’s first policy meeting as RBI governor on 4th October has been focused on whether he will take on the mantle of his predecessor Raghuram Rajan... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
