US Economics Weekly Yellen slightly more hawkish on inflation In her speech earlier this week, Chair Janet Yellen stressed that, despite the weakness of core inflation this year, the Fed still intends to push ahead with further interest rate hikes, with most... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation to remain subdued, interest rates to stay low Whereas the consensus is expecting monetary policy in Emerging Asia to be tightened next year, we think central banks will be in little hurry to raise interest rates. One of the main reasons is the... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone inflation data won’t stop the ECB from announcing in October its plan to taper its asset purchases next year. But the data suggest that the Bank will proceed... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Plans for universal electricity access will fall short Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement of a new project aimed at “electrifying” all of India’s households by the end of 2018 has grabbed headlines this month. But even if this ambitious target is... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Aug.) Today’s activity data point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, price pressures are strengthening again as the labour market remains tight. But we expect inflation to settle around 0.5% in... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s flash inflation data for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone inflation was probably unchanged from August’s 1.5%. And the likely falls in core inflation in both Germany and Spain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC set to hike in November The Czech MPC’s decision to keep rates on hold today was a very close call and we think that an interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting on 2nd November is highly likely. Following that, our central... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand in no rush to raise interest rates The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today resisted pressure from the government to loosen monetary policy, and instead left its key interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. With headwinds to the economy mounting and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch No scope for further loosening We are in agreement with financial market and analyst expectations of a rate hold in the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) upcoming policy meeting on 4th October. Further ahead, some are still expecting... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts are still on the way Nigerian policymakers kept rates on hold today, but the accompanying statement made it clear that easing is on the way. We expect that the first cut will come in Q1 2018. 26th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household debt to weigh on economic growth Although the economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth was still overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when interest rates... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation picks up from eight-year low Aggregate EM inflation rebounded in August, having fallen to an eight-year low in July. But while we expect fuel and food inflation to edge up over the coming months, easing core price pressures... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) The pick-up in the manufacturing PMI in September suggests that industrial activity continued to rise at a strong pace in the third quarter. However, the survey suggests that price pressures remain... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
