Global Economics Update What can, or should, the G20 do? Calls for co-ordinated policy easing ahead of this weekend’s G20 meeting will almost certainly cometo nothing. However, officials should at least seek to reassure investors that the world is not on... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further jump in Mexican inflation in the first half of February, to 2.9% y/y, from 2.5% y/y over January as a whole, was due to a rise in food inflation, which is typically volatile and should... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Feb.) While small business confidence picked up in February, firms project a deterioration in March allowing for seasonal factors. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weakening economy suggests Norges Bank will act in March The Norwegian economy looks much weaker than the Norges Bank had anticipated at its last meeting in December. With the outlook for GDP and inflation having deteriorated, we think that the Bank will... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Momentum continues into 2016 2015 was a good year for the consumer recovery and 2016 looks like it started off on a good footing, with strong retail spending and car registrations in January. The picture for spending in the near... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month is concerning, given that January’s data had suggested the headline rate was close to peaking. We still expect inflation to drop back... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central & South Eastern Europe remains an EM bright spot The latest data from Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) serve as a timely reminder that, despite widespread pessimism, some parts of the emerging world are faring well. Flash Q4 GDP estimates... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low in February and suggests that business sentiment has suffered from the sharp falls in the equity market and the stronger yen. 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Was the EM boom built on sand? Rapid EM growth in the 2000s was driven by a wave of liberalising reforms that produced genuine economic transformation across the emerging world, but potential growth has now slowed. Accordingly... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Further pick-up in inflation likely this year Despite the persistence of low oil prices we still think that inflation in the major advanced economies will rise this year. That said, it is only likely to increase substantially above 2% in the US... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
