UK Economic Outlook The real pay squeeze continues While consumer spending growth has lost pace in the face of the ongoing real pay squeeze, talk of a collapse in spending is overdone. With inflation set to fall back next year as the impact of the... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Household debt not a concern Household debt levels may now exceed their pre-crisis peaks in dollar terms but, more importantly, debt remains at an easily manageable level relative to disposable incomes and, after factoring in low... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households still living the high life Household consumption grew very strongly in the second quarter, supported by a further decline in the household saving rate and an acceleration in household borrowing. In the tougher banking... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to continue supporting regional growth Economic growth held up well across most of Emerging Asia last quarter. Poor prospects for domestic demand mean growth has probably already peaked in many countries, but with exports likely to remain... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) A rebound in energy inflation helped to lift headline inflation to fresh highs in July. But with the peak in energy inflation nearing and underlying price pressures still subdued, we expect inflation... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Qatar crisis reaches an impasse The diplomatic crisis between Qatar and regional powers seems to be in deadlock. Saudi Arabia and its allies revised their demands in July to something that appeared to be more palatable for Doha, but... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in the first half of August, but this was largely the result of another jump in food inflation. As such, it’s unlikely to change the central bank’s view that... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain near multi-year lows The big fall in EM inflation is now behind us but it is likely to remain relatively subdued over the coming months. As a result, despite the recent shift in focus towards monetary tightening in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery to strengthen over coming year After a torrid couple of years, the economies of Latin America have turned a corner and we expect growth to strengthen over the rest of 2017 and into 2018. Inflation has fallen in most countries and... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) Data to mid-August suggest that inflation in Brazil is starting to bottom out. That being said, it’s likely to remain well below the central bank’s target over the remainder of this year. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation eased by more than we’d expected in July, raising the prospect of two 25bp cuts later this year, rather than the single cut we currently expect. 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has Swedish inflation actually picked up? In recent months Swedish inflation has been artificially boosted by a new method for calculating package holiday prices. While the Riksbank will look through this particular effect, it is nevertheless... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Dollar’s decline to boost exports Just as the dollar’s earlier surge weighed on economic growth last year, the drop back in the exchange rate this year will provide a boost to growth over the next 12 months. The pick-up in global... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
