Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery still on track The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher Canadian dollar no threat to economy The two-month rally in the Canadian dollar, from US$0.73 to US$0.80, doesn’t pose any direct threat to the economy, particularly given the significant decline in the real trade-weighted exchange rate... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed in wait-and-see mode until December The Fed’s latest policy statement suggests that, barring any disruptive debt-ceiling stand-off, the FOMC is ready to announce it will begin reducing the size of its balance sheet at its September... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Election won’t solve Malaysia’s institutional problems There is growing speculation that Malaysia’s prime minister, Najib Razak, will take advantage of the recent strength of the economy by calling an early general election. The weak state of the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Jul.) July’s unchanged reading for HICP inflation in Germany suggests that euro-zone inflation probably remained at 1.3% in July. German core inflation is set to creep higher over the rest of the year, but... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia slows pace of easing, but significant rate cuts still likely The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to slow the pace of interest rate cuts to 25bp (from 50bp previously) suggests that policy might not be loosened as aggressively in the... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Spending, Labour Market & Inflation (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales and “core” household spending in June suggests that consumer spending rose at a solid pace last quarter. Meanwhile, inflation remains very low despite the continued... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Sluggish GDP growth to keep hawks in a minority While the softer tone of recent economic data may not be enough to prevent another split on the Monetary Policy Committee at August’s meeting, it supports our view that the MPC is still a way away... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Rate cut not a foregone conclusion Financial markets and a large majority of analysts are braced for a rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India’s policy meeting next week. But the RBI has developed a taste for springing surprises recently... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC stands pat, but rate cuts likely later this year The tone of the Turkish MPC statement published at today’s meeting remained relatively hawkish, but we think that falling inflation is likely to prompt the Council to start loosening monetary policy... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM Inflation drops to eight-year low as fuel prices slow EM inflation fell in June to its lowest rate since the aftermath of the global financial crisis. With the decline in fuel inflation close to bottoming out, we think EM inflation will trough in the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
