Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable Despite leaving interest rates at 2.25% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still hinted that they may fall to 2.0% before long. What’s more, we still think there’s a chance that rates may have to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (May) Having fallen in each of the past three months, inflation in Brazil was unchanged at 9.3% y/y in May. We suspect that this is a temporary blip rather than the start of a new trend and think inflation... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation not enough to prompt rate cut Consumer price inflation is likely to have dropped in May, but not by enough to bring it below the RBI’s 5.0% target for March 2017. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) The second estimate of Q1 GDP revealed that growth was marginally stronger last quarter than initially reported. However, we expect spare capacity to shrink only slowly, so the Bank of Japan will... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, loosening cycle likely at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.50% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA treading water in uncharted territory It was no surprise after cutting interest rates in May that the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at 1.75% today. But by not sending a signal that rates will fall further, it has become a... 7th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Set for a slow recovery The downturn in Latin America’s economy should bottom out over the second half of this year and economic growth should return as we move into 2017. The recession in the region’s largest economy –... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are central bankers going soft on their inflation targets? It is often claimed that central bankers are less committed to their inflation targets than they were before the global financial crisis, but a closer look suggests that there has not been a dramatic... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation remained unchanged at 7.3% y/y in May for the third consecutive month, but it looks like it is on course to edge up over the coming months. As a result, we think that the central... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Slowdown in underlying inflation should rattle BoJ Japan’s economy is holding up reasonably well despite the recent strengthening of the yen. Meanwhile, the decision to delay the sales tax hike that had been scheduled for next April has brightened the... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Goldilocks inflation rare bright spot for policymakers For China’s policymakers worrying about overcapacity, misplaced credit and pressures on the currency, the benign inflation outlook is a rare bright spot. We think consumer price inflation in China was... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rise in oil prices not all positive for Norway The recent rise in oil prices will provide some short-term support to the Norwegian economy, but the associated strengthening of the krone will hinder the economy’s rebalancing away from oil. We... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Consumption growth likely to slow The recent pick-up in consumer spending growth suggests at first glance that households are in a position to carry the economy once again this year. But closer examination of the underlying trends in... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation persists Euro-zone consumer price inflation remained in negative territory in May for the second consecutive month and the eighth month overall in the last 18. Fading negative energy effects mean that... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Regional growth to strengthen as Russia exits recession Growth in Emerging Europe is set to strengthen over the next few quarters, helped in part by the fact that the drag from Russia will ease as it exits recession. However, while the acute stage of... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
