US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the disappointing news keep on coming? Last year ended with some fairly downbeat news on public borrowing and economic growth. But has the news flow since then been any more encouraging? So far the answer is not particularly. The start of... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation in December, to a 12-year high of 10.7% y/y, now means that anything less than a 50bp rate hike at this month’s COPOM meeting is likely to see financial markets... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the Bank of Japan react to cheaper oil? The Bank of Japan will probably lower its inflation forecasts and push back the timing for reaching its 2% target yet again later this month. With cheaper energy keeping a lid on inflation, the recent... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Nov.) The marked slowdown in the annual growth rate of labour cash earnings in November was mostly due to a plunge in volatile bonus payments, whereas regular pay expanded rather solidly. However, much... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Renewed worries about China look overdone Concerns about China’s economic prospects have rattled investors in the past few days. However, we think China’s economy will pick up in the coming months. Overall, the latest economic data do not... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation picking up The weekend’s inflation data should provide a respite from fears that China’s economy and financial markets are collapsing. We foresee another rise in consumer price inflation, which should further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further decline in Mexican inflation in December, to 2.1% y/y, underscores the lack of price pressures in the economy. Against this backdrop, we expect only modest monetary tightening in 2016... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation on the rise Inflation is likely to have risen in December on account of accelerating food inflation and the government’s incremental hiking of fuel duties even as global oil prices continue to slump. Further... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery loses its vigour in 2015 The National Accounts released at the end of last year suggested that the economic recovery has less momentum than previously thought and still looks very unbalanced. Real GDP in 2015 is now on course... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) & Producer Prices (Nov.) The small rise in the euro-zone’s Composite PMI for December suggested that the region’s recovery may have gained a little pace in the final quarter of 2015. But GDP growth is still too slow to... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to expect in 2016 In our first India Watch of 2016, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. The lagged effect of earlier policy loosening and weakness in global commodity prices should... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A year of zero inflation December’s euro-zone consumer price inflation rate of +0.2% left an average inflation rate for 2015 as a whole of zero – the lowest rate since the single currency was formed. Headline inflation will... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Dec.) December’s weaker-than-expected euro-zone consumer prices figures supported our view that bolder ECB policy action will ultimately be needed to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis. 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Flash CPI (Dec.) The 0.5% y/y fall in Polish consumer prices was larger than we had expected and, coming alongside the latest fall in oil prices, raises the risk that inflation will remain in negative territory in the... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI & Euro-zone Final Man. PMI (Dec.) December’s German CPI data confirm that the relative strength of the economy is exerting no upward pressure on inflation and support our view that the ECB will need to do more to hit its inflation... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
