Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation inched up to 29.8% y/y in June and recent subsidy cuts will cause it to rise a bit further in the next few months. Even so, as the effects of last year’s sharp drop in the pound... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) In June, core consumer price inflation hit its highest level, Chinese New Year aside, since 2011. And after falling since February, producer price inflation stabilised. But with economic activity set... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Structural changes making it harder to hit inflation target The recent drop back in core inflation, even as the unemployment rate has fallen further, adds to the evidence that the Phillips curve has flattened. The reduced sensitivity of inflation to shifts in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico, Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) Mexican inflation rose further above target in June, but there are signs in the breakdown that it is close to peaking. Meanwhile, data also released today showed that inflation in both Brazil and... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Food and fuel inflation likely to drop again Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased again in June, due in large part to another drop in food and fuel inflation. But inflation is close to bottoming out, and is likely to begin rising... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unlikely to tighten even if sales tax hike is delayed We now expect the government to delay the sales tax hike currently scheduled for October 2019 beyond 2020. While this would remove one obstacle to policy tightening by the Bank of Japan, the bigger... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) The acceleration in base pay in May largely reflects a rebound in working hours. While strong growth in part-time pay points to faster overall gains, there is still a long way to go before wage growth... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Low-inflation recovery continues Advanced economies grew fairly rapidly in the second quarter, with GDP growth likely to have rebounded strongly in the US, Japan and the UK and to have accelerated a little in the euro-zone. This in... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus When and how fast will the MPC tighten? While there is no urgency for the MPC to dampen inflationary pressures, the extraordinary starting point of policy and general resilience of the economy suggest that UK interest rates are likely to... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The sharper-than-expected rise in Russian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by an increase in fruit and vegetable inflation. Core inflation fell to a record low. Accordingly, we still... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack GDP growth still looks to have accelerated in Q2 The incoming economic data appeared to take a bit of a turn for the worse over the past month, with the headline balances of all three Markit/CIPS PMIs falling in June. What’s more, consumer... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Floods add upside risks to inflation outlook We think headline inflation will have risen in June to a five-month high on the back of a further rebound in food price inflation. Looking ahead, while we don’t expect consumer price inflation to rise... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) The fall in Swiss inflation in June largely reflected lower energy prices. With core inflation holding close to zero, the SNB will stick to its ultra-loose policy stance over the next couple of years. 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in core inflation confined to Germany While euro-zone headline CPI inflation fell to 1.3% in June, the core rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, rose from 0.9% to 1.1%. This left it above the 0.8% average recorded... 5th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are economic expansions killed off by rising inflation? It is widely thought that recessions are generally triggered by central banks stepping on the brakes in response to rising inflation. But many recessions have not been preceded by an increase in... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s fears about household indebtedness persist The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the tenth consecutive meeting today and retained its fairly optimistic tone on the outlook for economic growth in the... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
