Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs & Turkey CPI (Dec.) December’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe provided an early sign that the latest fall in oil prices has hit activity in Russia. Meanwhile, the stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation figure... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Economy should have continued to recover in Q4 We took a break at the end of 2015 but Japan’s government statisticians didn’t. This Update recaps the key releases we missed. The main message is that November activity and spending data were weak... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Faster German wage growth is nothing to fear The recent pick-up in German wage growth is encouraging and we think that fears of a sharp rise in inflation and loss of competitiveness are unwarranted. Our one misgiving is that the ECB might... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda fails to launch in 2015 On the face of it, 2015 has been a decent year for the Indian economy. Admittedly, activity indicators are pointing to a slow and bumpy recovery, but conditions have undoubtedly improved following... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack ASEAN Economic Community is no game changer The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) formally takes effect on 31st December and aims to transform ASEAN into a single market and production base, which its supporters hope will one day enable it to... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 15) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 4.6% in November, but M2 growth was still a very healthy 6.2% and, most importantly, the growth rate of bank loans is running at 8.0%. 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Rebound won’t be sustained Australia and New Zealand both staged impressive rebounds in the third quarter, with GDP rising by 0.9% q/q in each economy on the back of a large boost from net exports. However, neither economy will... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Dec.) The fall in small business confidence in December partly reflects seasonal patterns. Nonetheless, it confirms earlier signs from the manufacturing PMI that economic momentum has slowed somewhat... 22nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation set to rebound Inflation is currently being held down by the impact of falling commodity prices and the stronger dollar but, as those deflationary forces fade next year, we expect rising domestic price pressures to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest oil price fall will keep inflation lower for longer Inflation still looks likely to rise in most EMs next year, despite the recent slump in oil prices. However, the rebound will now be more gradual, which will allow central banks in most economies to... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households unprepared for what comes next We fear that households are utterly unprepared for the normalisation of market interest rates that began with the US Fed’s historic lift-off last week. Canada’s economy has long been overly reliant on... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What to expect in 2016 If 2015 was the year when interest rates didn’t rise as rapidly as most originally expected, then 2016 is likely to be the opposite, with a bigger than expected rebound in inflation forcing the Fed to... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) & Wholesale Sales (Oct.) The increase in annual headline inflation to 1.4% in November, from 1.0%, was largely as expected given the diminishing drag from lower energy prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained close to the 2... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth supports to fade in 2016 The stronger-than-expected performance of the euro-zone economy in 2015 and the additional policy support recently provided by the ECB might appear to provide the conditions for a further improvement... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly 2016: Surviving rate rises and an EU referendum After a slight wobble in the autumn, the UK economy seems to be ending 2015 on a more positive note. Growth this year is on course to have been about 2.4%. While weaker than 2014’s 2.9% growth rate... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec.) The stronger-than-expected rise in Brazilian inflation, to 10.7% y/y, in the first half of December was driven by an increase in food inflation that should ease by mid-2016. Nonetheless, the risk of... 18th December 2015 · 1 min read
