Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) Households’ expectations for the next few months were little changed in May but the delay of the sales tax hike should lift spirits in coming months. 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why interest rates may have to fall to 1% The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to follow May’s 0.25% interest rate cut to 1.75% with another reduction at the meeting on Tuesday 7th June. But we still believe that rates will be reduced to... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Further cuts to repo rate unlikely The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut its repo rate by 150bp since the start of last year, but we believe that it will now keep rates on hold not just at next week’s policy meeting but for the rest... 2nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide HPI & Mortgage Lending (May/Apr) April’s drop in mortgage approvals was an expected response to the recent changes in stamp duty for additional homes and it gives us little new information. But the further easing in the Nationwide... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMI readings for May were underwhelming. Although they suggest that activity held up reasonably well last month, they also offer few signs of improvement. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) The latest figures on euro-zone inflation and unemployment maintained the picture of subdued price pressures across the region. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) Small business confidence dropped back in May and suggests that the economic recovery remains anaemic. 31st May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Crisis escalates The situation in Nigeria has deteriorated significantly over the past month. The latest national accounts figures show that the economy contracted by 0.4% y/y in Q1, a much worse outcome than had been... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) According to our estimates, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge slowed in April. Lingering slack and falling import prices suggest that price pressures will continue to moderate. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well-placed to cope with the Fed’s next rate hikes The US Fed looks set to increase interest rates soon, possibly as early as its June meeting, and we think it will end up hiking more than is generally expected over the next couple of years. However... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada less optimistic on economy Despite a serious downgrade to its views on second quarter economic activity, the Bank of Canada opted to hold interest rates at 0.50% today and to remain neutral on the rate outlook, clinging to its... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
