Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Not ready to become hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% when it meets next Tuesday 1 st August, and we expect it to retain its fairly upbeat view on the outlook for the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The RBA will probably look through the decline in headline inflation in the second quarter, especially given that underlying price pressures were slightly stronger than it had anticipated. That said... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s central bank pauses before launching easing cycle Nigeria’s central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 14.00% today, but the governor’s speech made it clear that policy loosening is on the agenda. We expect 200bp of cuts by the end of this... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Drop in inflation will keep Fed on hold for now The unexpected decline in core inflation over recent months is only partly due to transient factors and suggests that, after raising rates twice in the first half of the year, the Fed will hike rates... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is faster productivity growth holding back service inflation? We’re not much convinced by suggestions from the Bank of Japan that firms cutting back on the hours their employees work has contributed to the continued lack of inflation pressure. Very low and... 25th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) & IGAE (May) Mexican inflation remained unchanged in the first half of July which, combined with the latest activity data suggesting that GDP growth slowed in Q2, reinforces our view that Banxico’s tightening... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second consecutive drop in the output index of the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is slowing. But the survey still points to faster increases in consumer prices. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Although the headline inflation rate fell to 1.0% in June, from 1.3%, the uptick in two of the three core inflation measures suggests that some of the temporary factors restraining inflation are now... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weakness in core inflation will persist until next year The Fed is unlikely to make any major policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting, but the statement will probably concede that the recent drop back in inflation has been more broad-based than Chair... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
