Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pressures on Saudi riyal should start to ease Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal. For our part, we have long argued that policymakers would be loath to abandon the dollar peg. And, as we explain in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (Apr.) The new official UK house price index reported that house price inflation slowed a touch in April. And a new breakdown of the data showed that price pressures were strongest for newbuild homes and... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s inflation figures showed that price pressures in the economy remain subdued. However, inflation should still gather more pace next year, regardless of which way the EU referendum vote goes next... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May) Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response S. Africa Current Account (Q1) & Nigeria Inflation (May) The widening of South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 will keep pressure on the country’s currency, supporting our view that monetary policy will be tightened. Similarly, higher inflation in... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The sharp rise in wholesale price inflation in May reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (May 16) Sweden’s inflation rate fell by more than expected in May. With underlying price pressures still largely absent, the Riksbank may well need to take further policy action. 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations are rising not falling The decline in long-term inflation expectations to a record low in the University of Michigan’s June consumer confidence survey won’t prevent the Fed from raising interest rates, not least because... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The rise in India’s consumer price inflation last month pushes it further above the RBI’s target for March 2017. This supports our view that there is no further scope for policy loosening. 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling underlying inflation to require more easing The government’s decision to postpone the sales tax hike to 2019 has improved the economic outlook. However, we still believe that the Bank will respond to the recent moderation in underlying... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is a rise in inflation “baked in the cake”? It’s assumed that a rise in inflation this year is “baked in the cake”, with all economists bar one (out of 33 polled by HM Treasury) forecasting a rise in inflation between now and year-end. Butwith... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but central banks in no hurry to hike rates Inflation looks set to rise in most of Emerging Asia over the coming year, but probably not by enough to worry policy makers, who will look to keep interest rates low to support growth. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The modest rise in Mexican inflation in May, to 2.6% y/y from 2.5% y/y in April, in itself is unlikely to have much of a bearing on the central bank’s rate setting meeting later this month given that... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Low inflation to persist almost everywhere Headline inflation will rebound in many countries in the coming months as the effects of the slump in oil prices drop out of the annual comparison. But the era of very low inflation is likely to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egyptian inflation jumped to 12.3% y/y in May as the impact of March’s devaluation of the pound continued to feed through into price pressures, while a decision by the government to hike medicine... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
