Bank of Japan Watch Lower inflation forecasts to underline case for loose policy The Bank of Japan will probably upgrade its assessment of the health of the economy at the upcoming meeting. But downward revisions to the Board’s inflation forecasts will underline that policy... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & IP (Jun.) & UoM Cons. Conf. (Jul.) Production data for June confirm that the industrial sector saw its biggest quarterly expansion for three years in the second quarter. Furthermore, while the retail sales and confidence data, also... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in June, which left the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 1.7%, continues the recent run of soft inflation data. Earlier this week, Chair... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly KORUS renegotiation could benefit Korea The announcement earlier in the week from the US government that it is formally seeking to renegotiate the Korea-US free trade pact (KORUS) is not a big threat to the Korean economy. The negotiations... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in June will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) As underlying inflation is within touching distance of the Riksbank’s target, today’s rise in the krona should be followed by further gains as the remaining doves on the Executive Board come round to... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia interest rate likely to remain unchanged this year With inflation falling and growth rebounding, it was no surprise that Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) kept its policy rate unchanged at 3.0% today. Looking ahead, we expect that BNM will keep interest... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) The further drop in Indian consumer price inflation in June will increase the clamour for policy loosening. But with inflation now close to bottoming out, we still expect rates to stay on hold over... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s new national inflation series The publication of a national consumer price index by Argentina’s statistics office is a further step towards overhauling its previously discredited inflation data. The short back series limits its... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Are we witnessing the end of the GCC? A threat by regional powers to expel Qatar from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has sparked fears that the group could be disbanded. A complete breakup of the GCC seems highly unlikely but, even if... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Picking apart the economic costs of Brazil’s latest crisis The economic surveys in Brazil have fallen since the crisis that has engulfed President Temer’s administration erupted in May, but the hard activity data do not yet point to a sharp downturn in the... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling inflation to open door to interest rate cuts in Turkey With Turkish inflation now on a downwards path, it seems increasingly likely that the central bank will start to loosen monetary conditions before the year is out. The easing cycle will probably begin... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun) Headline inflation in Norway slowed in June, and we think that it will fall further. Over the next few years, it is likely to remain below the Norges Bank’s target, so we think that interest rate... 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
