Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Aug.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month to 10.7% y/y means that the interest rate cuts we had expected before the end of the year are looking less likely. That said, we still expect the headline... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The RBA is stuck in neutral The Reserve Bank of Australia has now left interest rates at 1.5% for 13 months and we suspect the combination of subdued GDP growth, low inflation and a growing focus on financial stability will mean... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP growth bound to slow after blazing pace in H1 Although the real economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth still appears to be overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: No need to worry about the weak peso Subdued inflation and a relatively low level of foreign currency debt mean the weakness of the Philippine peso, which has recently been hitting multi-year lows against the US dollar, is not a major... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger growth, but inflation to rise only slowly We are lifting our GDP forecasts for both this year and next to reflect the strength of recent data. We are not making any changes to our inflation forecasts though, as price pressures still appear... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: Temporary drags on core inflation to fade soon A combination of a strong currency and the fading impact of a previously-introduced levy on the financial sector has kept a lid on Polish core inflation in recent months. These effects should soon... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data broadly support the case for the ECB to taper its asset purchases next year, but the Bank seems unlikely to announce its plan until its October... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil’s political crisis puts back pension reform The past month has brought some signs that the continuing political crisis in Brazil is starting to weigh on the more ambitious elements of the government’s reform programme. While President Temer’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up well despite real pay squeeze There have been some tentative signs that the tight labour market is translating into stronger pay gains. Even so, earnings growth needs to gather more pace in order to match the rise in CPI inflation... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Flash CPI (Aug.) August’s increases in German and Spanish HICP inflation point to an increase in eurozone inflation to about 1.5%. But the relatively subdued rates of core inflation in both economies support the ECB’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The real pay squeeze continues While consumer spending growth has lost pace in the face of the ongoing real pay squeeze, talk of a collapse in spending is overdone. With inflation set to fall back next year as the impact of the... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch GDP growth to fall short of RBA’s lofty expectations While we agree with the assessment of the financial markets that there is next to no chance of an interest rate hike when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday 5 th September, we... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Household debt not a concern Household debt levels may now exceed their pre-crisis peaks in dollar terms but, more importantly, debt remains at an easily manageable level relative to disposable incomes and, after factoring in low... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Households still living the high life Household consumption grew very strongly in the second quarter, supported by a further decline in the household saving rate and an acceleration in household borrowing. In the tougher banking... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Exports to continue supporting regional growth Economic growth held up well across most of Emerging Asia last quarter. Poor prospects for domestic demand mean growth has probably already peaked in many countries, but with exports likely to remain... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
