Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Much greater capacity shortages needed to lift inflation Japan is on the longest streak of growth in more than a decade. But the lesson of the last growth spurt is that capacity shortages would have to intensify much further to generate major price... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) The rather sharp fall in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economic recovery may now be slowing again. Meanwhile, price pressures remain subdued. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Trend still towards looser monetary policy The overall trend in EMs has remained towards looser monetary policy in recent months, with more EM central banks cutting interest rates than hiking them. But significant divergences exist at a... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Although the headline inflation rate remained at 1.6% in April, the decline in core inflation provides further evidence of disinflationary pressures in the economy. Spare capacity and very low wage... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro’s rise adds to reasons for ECB caution Diminishing political risk and early expectations of ECB asset purchase tapering have driven the euro up to around its highest level since before QE began. We think that the single currency will fall... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth holding up despite real pay squeeze With CPI inflation set to reach just over 3% later this year and pay growth still subdued, the squeeze on real earnings growth should intensify as the year progresses. But the news that spending on... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone’s revival be sustained? While the recent pick-up in euro-zone growth has owed much to temporary factors, the economy now seems to be gaining its own momentum and we expect it to outperform consensus forecasts this year and... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Japan’s economy is on its longest streak of expansion in more than a decade. However, growth in labour income has weakened sharply and we expect a slowdown in GDP growth in the second half of the year... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Central Bank of Iceland not done with rate cuts yet Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Iceland to cut interest rates is likely to be followed by another cut later this year. Granted, strong economic growth will put pressure on domestic inflation... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wages (Q1) & Consumer Confidence (May) Record low wage growth suggests that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s target range for another year or two yet and it goes some way to explaining why households aren’t particularly happy... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What explains the recent drop back in core inflation? The recent weakness in core CPI inflation in March and April has forced us to revise down our inflation forecasts for the next couple of years. Even if the recent drop in the price of cell phone plans... 16th May 2017 · 1 min read
