UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth moderates Although retail spending has come off the boil in the past couple of months, the consumer recovery is on the whole holding up reasonably well. Indeed, there are few signs that Brexit uncertainty is... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Rates may have to fall to 1.75% We expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.00% at the meeting in early June rather than at the meeting on Thursday 28th April, although we wouldn’t completely rule... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to leave door open to June rate hike Despite the marked improvement in financial conditions and fading fears over China’s economic outlook, the Fed is very unlikely to raise interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes on... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation eased a touch in March, but we still expect that it will rise over the duration of 2016. The current pause was mainly the result of strengthening rand. 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Stronger dollars a major threat to outlook The recent rise of the Australian and New Zealand dollars will prevent GDP growth from strengthening this year and will keep core inflation at uncomfortably low levels. This is particularly true in... 20th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q1 A cyclical rebound appears to be underway. Admittedly, there is no sign of a turnaround in either the official GDP figures or Q1 industrial production. But evidence elsewhere points to a policy-driven... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Inflation is going to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target, let’s be clear. While we expect Fed officials to be fairly relaxed about that, however, we don’t think it means interest rates won’t rise at all... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) Wholesale price inflation was virtually unchanged in March but, looking ahead, we think that it will return to positive territory over the next couple of months. 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI Inflation (Q1) The rebound in CPI inflation in the first quarter increases the chances that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates to 2.0% at next week’s policy meeting and will instead wait until the meeting in June. By... 18th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru likely to restart tightening cycle later this year The decision by Peru’s central bank to hold interest rates at 4.25% for a second consecutive month suggests that policymakers believe inflationary risks are now waning. But we doubt inflation will... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will inflation ever reach 2%? If the government presses ahead with the sales tax hike next year, the chances of hitting 2% inflation on a sustainable basis anytime soon are very slim. Even if the tax hike is postponed, our best... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What next for inflation expectations in New Zealand? Since the sharp declines in inflation expectations were the main reason why the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates to 2.25% in March, future moves in inflation expectations will have a big... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Policymakers running out of ammunition The euro-zone’s gradual recovery appears to be slowing as we had warned as boosts from the euro’s depreciation and falling oil prices fade. However, the ECB has hinted at limits to its future policy... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in March consumer prices, which was below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% m/m gain, was principally because of a 1.1% m/m drop back in clothing prices. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC gives warnings about EU referendum The MPC’s unanimous decision to leave Bank Rate on hold at 0.5% today was unsurprising given recent signs of a slowdown in economic activity and heightened uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further policy loosening in Singapore unlikely The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today moved to flatten the slope of its nominal effective exchange rate policy band, a decision that amounts to a loosening of its policy stance. But with... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
