Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan – improved performance unlikely to last A combination of loose monetary policy and increased infrastructure spending related to the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) should push up growth in Pakistan to its fastest pace in over a... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Real wages squeezed by rising price of essentials The rise in inflation in Australia in the first quarter was good news as it suggests the period of very low inflation is now over. But it is also bad news as it means prices are now rising faster than... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Mar.) Despite sharp falls in “core” household spending and industrial production in March, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.3% q/q in Q4 to 0.7% in Q1. However, there is still no evidence that the... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Construction likely to slow again as property sales cool After falling for years, construction growth in China has stabilised since the start of 2016, supported by a rise in home sales. Dire warnings of developers collapsing have not materialised. But it is... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish CPI (Apr.) April’s increases in harmonised CPI inflation in Germany and Spain suggest that the euro-zone rate rose back to the ECB’s target of close to 2%. But the increase partly reflected the timing of Easter... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Strength in nominal spending offers some comfort The fall in retail sales volumes in Q1 2017 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. But the recent strength of nominal spending offers some comfort. Retail sales... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update The economic impact of the monsoon The release of an Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast of a “normal” monsoon this year has led to a rush of commentary on the potential economic impact. But the early forecasts are prone to... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan remains too upbeat about inflation The BoJ upgraded its assessment of the economy at today’s meeting but lowered its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year. We think that the Bank remains too optimistic about inflation and... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Why we are no longer expecting more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 2nd May and, in a change to our central forecast, we now no longer expect it to cut... 27th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Apr.) While the decline in small business confidence in April can largely be attributed to seasonal patterns, the survey remains consistent with a stagnation in industrial output. What’s more, there are no... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Underlying inflation in Australia is by no means strong but, when coupled with the RBA’s financial stability concerns, it doesn’t appear to be weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates... 26th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains close to eight-year low EM inflation remained at close to an eight-year low last month, driven in large part by weakening price pressures in the BRIC economies. Inflation has been on the rise in most other EMs, although not... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Sensex rises to record highs Indian equities have rallied over the past few months, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early April. This reflects in part a broader pick-up across most major EM... 25th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) Falling gasoline price inflation led to a drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.6% in March, from 2.0%, and core inflation dipped further below the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Competitive pressures to weigh on core inflation The unexpected decline in core consumer prices in March is not a signal of sudden weakness in the real economy. Nevertheless, it is partly due to heightened competition in some sectors, which will... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
