Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation to 9.7% y/y in October was driven almost entirely by an increase in the food component, which is highly volatile. Stripping out food prices, inflation actually... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s 2.5% y/y rise in Mexican consumer prices is unlikely to change the near-term monetary policy outlook given that it was in line with expectations and unchanged from September. Instead, with a... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Sep.) & Czech CPI (Oct.) The slowdown in Turkish industry in September means that industrial production growth over Q3 as a whole was a little slower than in Q2. Elsewhere, the weaker-than-expected inflation data from the... 9th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Closer than it looks Downgrades to the Bank of England’s inflation projections in its Inflation Report last week were widely anticipated. Nonetheless, sterling’s tumble against the dollar and the euro after its release... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Even the bulls are nervous about housing now Investors who have paid attention to indicators of growing imbalances in Canada’s hot housing market over the years won’t be surprised by recent warnings of potential housing corrections from certain... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment not unusually low The current level of business investment is not unusually low, with firms opting to use funds to pay dividends or buy back equity instead. Nevertheless, that doesn’t mean the outlook for business... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB can’t rely on Fed to do its work With the composite euro-zone PMI pointing to steady growth and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen pushing the euro down to a four-month low against the dollar, further policy loosening by... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil, Chile & Colombia Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s rise in Brazilian inflation, to 9.9% y/y, was due in part to a fresh increase in regulated fuel prices, but it looks like the recent slide in the real also played a role. Elsewhere in Latin... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s unexpectedly sharp fall in German industrial production was a worrying sign that GDP growth may have slowed in Q3 even in the euro-zone’s strongest economy. 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Boosts to spending to fade next year The recent return to deflation is boosting consumers’ spending power. Real household spending still looks set to grow by about 3% this year, the strongest rate for a decade. 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation set to accelerate again Inflation is likely to have risen in October, as the favourable base effects that helped to anchor food inflation in recent months continue to fade. With inflation expectations also edging up, there... 6th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies and the impact on inflation The sharp falls in currencies across Latin America over the past year have pushed up inflation in most countries. But the extent of the pass-through has varied significantly. The effect has been... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation edged down again in October, to 15.6% y/y, but the headline rate remains extremely high and this figure alone is unlikely to be enough to tip the balance on the MPC in favour of a... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth picking up again at the start of Q4 Concerns that a hard landing in China may tip the world into a fresh recession look increasingly wide of the mark. The latest business surveys and credit data suggest that China itself may be... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Deflation fears set to fade as broad price pressures rise Headline inflation is likely to have edged down in October due to a fall in food price inflation. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures appear to be picking up. Looking ahead, we... 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank policy unchanged, but rate cut likely next year The Norges Bank left its policy rate on hold today, but its loosening cycle is not over. Inflation looks set to fall next year and, as a result, we have pencilled in a 25 basis point cut in March. 5th November 2015 · 1 min read
