Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation rises in commodity consumers but stays below target Seasonal factors pushed up food inflation in Asia last month, but the underlying picture is that inflation remains below target in commodity-consuming EMs in Asia as well as in Central Europe. In... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in small business confidence in March is due to seasonal patterns. In fact, the survey points to falling industrial output. 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Stage set for further modest loosening It's not a done deal yet, but the balance appears to be tipped towards the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) deliver ing another interest rate cut in next week's policy meeting . This is due to a number of... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed can’t ignore pick-up in core inflation much longer It is becoming increasingly apparent that many Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which inflation will rise in the second half of the year. Fed officials expect core PCE inflation will... 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Underlying inflation to moderate further The Bank of Japan’s new favourite inflation gauge remained below its December peak in February. Sizeable spare capacity and falling import prices suggest that price pressures will moderate further. 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan approaching the limits of conventional monetary policy Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) cut its discount rate by 12.5 basis points to 1.50% today against a backdrop of very weak growth and low inflationary pressures. Further cuts to the discount rate are... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook The worst is yet to come Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa fell to a 16 year-low last year, and we believe that growth will weaken even further 2016. Three key factors will drive this decline. First, a combination of drought... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets recover some ground A combination of improving investor sentiment and a pick-up in global commodity prices has underpinned a recovery in frontier financial markets in recent weeks. Since reaching a two-year low in early... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Making a good start to the year Data released over the past month have provided further evidence that regional growth strengthened at the start to the year. Admittedly, the region’s largest economy, Russia, remains in recession. But... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) The larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month, to 10.0% y/y from 10.4% y/y over February as a whole, is encouraging. We expect inflation to continue to fall back... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets bounce back strongly The last month has seen EM financial markets recover from their poor start to 2016. Our Synthetic EM Exchange Rate Index has rallied to its strongest level since November. Almost all EM currencies... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf entering a prolonged period of weak growth The storm created by low oil prices will finally make its presence felt in the Gulf this year and we expect this to be the start of an extended period of slow growth. A wave of devaluations is highly... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb.) Today’s surprisingly high South African inflation figure will probably lead the SARB to accelerate its programme of rate hikes. This will be very painful for an economy that is struggling to avoid... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (Mar.) The fall in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of March, to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% y/y over February as a whole, confirms that overall price pressures remain in check for now. However, the rise... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Partial U-turn further muddles monetary outlook The Central Bank of Nigeria hiking its key policy rate from 11.00% to 12.00% is, in many ways, a positive sign. But this flip-flop on rates will raise yet more questions about the unpredictable and... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
