US Economics Weekly Medical care inflation due for a rebound Although the Fed expects to raise interest rates only very gradually next year, we suspect that an acceleration in core inflation, thanks in part to a rebound in medical care inflation, will force the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Economy could be helped by quick EU referendum We have known for some time the Government’s broad objectives for its negotiations with the EU and David Cameron’s letter last week to the European Council President Donald Tusk contained little... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Oct.) The October retail sales report was a little bit weaker than expected, but doesn't change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be a respectable 2.5%. 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Deflation Watch: Tuition fees push inflation further below zero After returning to negative territory in September, CPI inflation looks set to slip further below zero in October. While inflation looks odds on to post its lowest rate since March 1960, we do not... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Slowdown bolsters case for delay in sales tax hike The government has set itself a stringent target for eliminating the budget deficit and currently intends to raise the sales tax again in 2017 to help it achieve that end. The economic weakness that... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A significant shift in borrowing trends The Reserve Bank of Australia will have been pleased to see more evidence that the housing market is cooling at the same time that the outlook for business investment is improving. If recent trends... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) House price inflation remained at 5.6% in October and the high home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it might rise as high as 6.0% by the end of the year. The national average continues to... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) The increase in India’s consumer price inflation in October doesn’t put the RBI’s inflation target for January 2016 under threat, but it underlines that policymakers cannot be certain that they will... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Oct.) Although France’s headline inflation rate ticked up in October, price pressures across the euro-zone’s core economies remain very weak, supporting the case for more policy support from the ECB. 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct. 15) The very low rate of inflation in Sweden in October suggests that the Riksbank will need to put any lingering concerns about household debt to one side and increase its monetary policy support in... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The further pick-up in Mexican industrial production growth in September, to 1.7% y/y, suggests that the sector may finally be finding its feet. But overall, industry probably contributed only a... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged up for the second consecutive month in October, to 2.4% y/y, a fresh high for this year. Even so, low global commodity prices and slower economic growth should keep price... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the Greek economy out of danger? The recent run of surprisingly strong data from Greece does not mean that the economy is out of danger. Not only has some survey evidence painted a much gloomier picture, but the full adverse economic... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growing labour market slack to restrain core inflation Recent headline employment gains mask a deterioration in underlying labour market conditions. If, as we fear, the economy continues to struggle in response to the worsening oil price slump, then... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Volatile food prices aside, price pressures were largely stable in October. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to edge higher in the coming months. But the window for further interest rate cuts will... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
