China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Consumer price inflation edged up last month but broad price pressures still appear fairly subdued. Meanwhile, the rapid rise in producer price inflation since late last year is now reversing, thanks... 10th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) Mexican inflation continued to rise in April and, with inflation expectations starting to tick up again, we think the central bank is likely to opt for another 25bp hike in its policy interest rate... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Mar.) The first fall in labour cash earnings since last May underlines the challenges the Bank of Japan is facing in lifting inflation to 2%. With wages growing no faster than labour productivity, much... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Apr.) Chilean inflation remained weak at 2.7% y/y in April, but even so, with the economy finally showing tentative signs of picking up, the central bank is likely to pause its easing cycle at next week’s... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation set to rise, but outlook benign We think headline inflation will have risen in April and expect a further pick-up over the next few months. But price pressures should remain contained over the course of this year. Meanwhile, the... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) We are not too worried about the drop in consumer confidence in April as the index remains near multi-year highs. What’s more, the survey remains consistent with a rebound in durable goods consumption... 8th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the low level of inflation expectations a concern? The stubbornly-low level of inflation expectations, even as actual inflation has been trending higher, could become a troublesome issue for the Fed. On some measures, household inflation expectations... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month – and in core inflation in particular – reinforces our view that the central bank’s easing cycle has much further to run. We expect another interest... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to rebound, but not enough for BoJ Underlying price pressures in Japan are not quite as weak as the recent negative reading for core inflation might suggest: it was caused by a slump in mobile phone prices that won’t continue. But... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Drop in inflation in April to prove temporary Consumer price inflation is likely to have eased a touch in April, due in large part to a drop in fuel inflation. But this is likely to prove temporary. Further ahead, rising core price pressures... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Temer’s reforms inch forward in face of mounting opposition Despite mounting public opposition, President Temer’s reform agenda is inching ahead in Brazil. Labour market reforms have passed the lower house, but the real test lies ahead with pension reform. The... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - RBNZ’s rate projections may reflect upturn in inflation While the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly keep the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 11 th May, in light of the stronger-than-anticipated first... 4th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Apr.) The further rise in Turkish inflation in April, to 11.9% y/y, probably marks the peak for the headline rate, and it should slowly reverse course in the coming months. As things stand, our sense is... 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.), Income & Spending (Mar.) The drop back in the ISM manufacturing index in April is not a huge worry since the index is still well above its average over the past two years and at a level historically consistent with 3% GDP... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack The inflation worm has turned The recent rises in underlying inflation suggest that the period of extremely low inflation in both Australia and New Zealand has come to an end. Underlying inflation, which excludes the temporary... 1st May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Apr.) April’s rise in euro-zone HICP inflation put it back in line with the ECB’s target, but the rise reflected the timing of Easter and we doubt that it will lead the Bank to alter its view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
