India Economics Update Inflation to ease again but RBI's targets under threat Inflation is likely to have fallen in March as food price pressures continued to ease. But further ahead, the RBI still faces a difficult task in meeting its inflation targets for 2017 and 2018. Given... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances leave a lot to be desired The Egyptian government faces a tough task in meeting its budget deficit target for the upcoming fiscal year and, worryingly, there seems to be a growing sense that the authorities are wavering on... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Growth still weak, but not slowing sharply Business surveys edged up in March but still point to global economic growth of only around 2%. In the US, jobs growth remained strong and, with core inflation pressures building, we think the Fed... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite the strong start to the year, policymakers indicated recently... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation outlook appears benign After a seasonal spike in February, CPI inflation is likely to have to have fallen slightly last month. That said, inflation is likely to remain higher in the coming quarters than during most of the... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s election unlikely to mark shift in economic policy The run-up to Peru’s presidential election on Sunday 10th April has been overshadowed by concerns about the neutrality of the country’s electoral authorities. But, whatever the eventual outcome, the... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Panic ebbs but outlook still subdued The sense of panic about emerging economies that gripped financial markets at the start of this year has eased. This is justified. There are few signs that the emerging world is on the brink of a... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next Turkish central bank governor faces unenviable job Uncertainty regarding who will take over at the helm of the Turkish central bank when the current governor’s term expires this month has raised concerns that a government loyalist could be put in... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI cuts repo rate but loosening cycle now at an end The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced its repo rate by 25bp to 6.50% today but, given the difficulties it faces in meeting its inflation targets for March 2017 and 2018, we think that rates will now... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Bank seizes fleeting opportunity for rate cut The Bank of Uganda is unlikely to follow today’s surprise rate cut with much more monetary easing this year. A variety of factors will force the Bank to keep policy tight. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp decline in Turkish inflation in March, to a seven-month low of 7.5% y/y, was driven by a drop in food inflation, and masked the fact that core inflation remains extremely strong. Even so... 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The pronounced drop in the headline index of today’s Tankan survey underlines that the recent strengthening of the yen has damaged business confidence and suggests that the Bank of Japan will announce... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The ECB can’t afford to ignore the euro Recent weak activity and inflation data in the euro-zone have underlined the fact that the ECB cannot afford to simply sit back and allow the euro exchange rate to strengthen further. 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Still struggling Financial markets across Latin America have fared well over the past month but the incoming economic data suggest that the region is still struggling. Most of the attention has, of course, focussed on... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria reverses course? The biggest policy change over the past month came from Nigeria, where the Central Bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate from 11.00% to 12.00%. This move partially reversed the Bank’s rate cut... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Where next for Myanmar? Today’s handover from military to civilian rule in Myanmar marks another welcome step forward in the country’s political development. But the new government must overcome a number of major challenges... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
