Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) Egyptian inflation rose further in March, to 30.9% y/y, but we think it’s close to peaking and the central bank is unlikely to tighten monetary policy further. Indeed, as inflation starts to fall back... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s small rise in the Norges Bank’s preferred measure of inflation was probably just a blip. Indeed, we think that inflation will fall to about 1.0% later this year, prompting the central bank to... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) & Turkey Ind. Production (Feb.) The further rise in Czech inflation (both headline and core) last month is, with the koruna cap now at an end, likely to shift attention to the timing of the first interest rate hike. For our part, we... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will Japan benefit from higher inflation? Deflation has not done as much damage to Japan’s economy as is often thought and, correspondingly, a return to inflation is unlikely to deliver major benefits for now. However, we remain convinced... 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) Mexican inflation hit a fresh seven-year high of 5.4% y/y in March, up from 4.9% y/y in February, but the recent rebound in the peso means that it is probably now close to peaking. Much still depends... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) The latest drop in Brazilian inflation leaves it only a whisker above the BCB’s central target and probably seals the deal on a larger 100bp cut in interest rates at next week’s Copom meeting. 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian consumers facing growing headwinds Consumer spending has grown at a steady if unspectacular pace across Emerging Asia over the past few years, comfortably outperforming other EM regions. Spending in the region should continue to grow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Monetary policy to remain loose for longer While the economy should continue to grow at a robust pace, price pressures will strengthen only slowly. And with the sales tax hike scheduled for end-2019 clouding the outlook, the Bank of Japan is... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rising inflation could prompt repo rate hike Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen again in March, due in large part to another acceleration in food inflation. Further ahead, rising core price pressures could prompt the RBI to follow... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) February’s data on labour cash earnings were a mixed bag. While growth in regular earnings slowed, wages of part-time worker grew at the fastest pace in years. The key point though is that much faster... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Mar.) March’s Swiss inflation data do little to alter the picture of extremely subdued price pressures. With the core rate barely positive and inflation expectations very low, we expect the Swiss National... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in consumer confidence in March left sentiment at the highest level it has been since autumn 2013 and suggests that consumption should continue to recover. However, households still expect... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The further decline in Russian inflation last month, and in core inflation in particular, means another interest rate cut looks likely at the next central bank Board meeting later this month. As... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Economy going strong, but core inflation weak Survey data for March added to the evidence that euro-zone growth gained pace in the first quarter. Meanwhile, headline consumer price inflation fell in March and appears to have passed its peak... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation rebounds as New Year distortions fade Consumer price inflation ought to have rebounded from a seasonal decline in February last month but remained low. Looking ahead, households will continue to face relatively subdued price pressures in... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
