Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the rise in Turkish inflation? The sharp rise in Turkish inflation in recent months has been caused by a combination of the fall in the lira, higher petrol inflation and a harsh winter. The impact of these should fade in the coming... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment and the rise in the manufacturing PMI in March supported other evidence that the economy is performing well. But February’s producer prices data confirmed... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) & Turkey CPI (Mar.) The sharp rise in Turkish inflation last month supports our view that, while the central bank’s tightening cycle has probably run its course, interest rates will stay very high. In better news, March... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions for large manufacturers did not improve as much as most had anticipated, the survey suggests that growth will remain strong for now. What’s... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s sharp slowdown in euro-zone inflation was partly driven by temporary factors that will reverse in April, but the big picture is that inflation is now on a downward trend. So we expect the ECB... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The economic consequences of Cyclone Debbie The recent damage caused by Cyclone Debbie is clearly devastating for those households and businesses in Queensland that have been most affected. And it will leave a fairly large dent in Queensland’s... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (Feb.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover in Q1 while the labour market tightened further. However, very weak underlying price pressures highlight that the Bank of Japan... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German, Spanish & Belgian Flash CPI (Mar.) March’s declines in headline consumer price inflation in Germany, Spain and Belgium reflected some temporary factors. But the big picture is still that underlying inflation throughout the euro-zone... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Services set to pull inflation higher A recent acceleration in producer prices of services combined with more upbeat survey evidence suggest that the prices that consumers pay for services will soon start picking up again. However, there... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic growth to slow again Economic growth has picked up recently, but we aren’t convinced the economy has turned the corner, particularly not when that growth is still so unbalanced. Non-commodity exports are lagging and... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Recent dip in oil prices not a major concern for the Gulf The recent drop in oil prices, from around US$56pb at the start of March to just over US$51pb at present, is unlikely to be a major cause for alarm in the Gulf. For one thing, oil prices are still... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in small business confidence in March largely reflects seasonal patterns and the bigger picture is that the survey points to only modest gains in industrial activity. What’s more, the... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Can the ECB break its forward guidance? The ECB’s forward guidance about asset purchases and an extended period of low interest rates need not prevent it from starting to normalise policy should the inflation outlook so warrant. But it... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch The RBA’s primary concern may soon change Although the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday 4th April won’t be very exciting, as the RBA will leave interest rates at 1.5% for the sixth meeting in a row, events over the next month... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
