Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.) Last month’s weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 4.6% y/y, coming alongside the recent rally in the rand, makes next month’s Reserve Bank rate decision a close call. But with... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda hikes rates as inflation spikes, policy to stay tight The Bank of Uganda’s decision to hike its policy interest rate by a further 100bp, to 17.0%, today appears to be a response to the sharp pick-up in inflation in September. The bulk of the monetary... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation targeting policy not enough Canada’s inflation target agreement between the Federal government and the Bank of Canada is up for renewal next year and the conventional wisdom is that it doesn’t need fixing. In contrast, we think... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Italian and Irish budgets highlight contrasting fortunes While in last week’s Budget the Irish Government talked up its proposed tax cuts, the big picture was one of continued fiscal consolidation. All else equal, this will drag on growth. But Ireland’s... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will Mr Osborne come to regret his “fiscal charter”? Chancellor George Osborne was last week able to pass his new “fiscal charter”, forcing current and future governments to run a budget surplus during “normal times”. But the Chancellor may come to... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Should we fear a shift to populism in Poland? Rising support for the opposition Law and Justice party ahead of Poland’s parliamentary election on 25th October has raised concerns about a move towards more populist policymaking. We think that any... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Deflation: Exit ahead The latest warnings that deflation is a major cause for concern in Emerging Asia are wide of the mark. In fact, we think inflation will be back in positive territory across the entire region by early... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook The changing shape of the UK economy - The winners and the losers Beneath the surface, it is clear that the economic recovery has not been firing on all cylinders recently. And the recovery faces a number of headwinds over the next year or so – in particular the re... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand CPI (Q3) The CPI data for the third quarter were not weak enough to make a rate cut at the RBNZ's policy meeting in late October a certainty. But with the full effects of the recent slowdown in economic growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Return to deflation should be brief Headline inflation fell below zero in a number of major economies in September, but we expect the latest bout of deflation to be short-lived. That said, the further drop in inflation expectations in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The September CPI report suggests that although domestic inflationary pressures are slowly building, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices will give the Fed an excuse to delay hiking interest... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to expect from Egypt’s parliamentary elections Egyptians are scheduled to return to the polls this month to elect a new parliament, which is likely to emerge as a body that is largely aligned with President al-Sisi. As we explain in this Watch, in... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia likely to cut rates before end-2015 The recent rebound in the rupiah was never likely to be enough to persuade Bank Indonesia (BI) to loosen policy, and today’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 7.5% was no great surprise... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French CPI (Sep.) Although France’s headline HICP inflation rate held above zero in September, today’s data revealed that price pressures remain exceptionally weak and will add to the growing pressure on the ECB to... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi Arabian inflation rose to 2.3% y/y in September, its highest rate this year. But with the economy set to slow and global commodity prices likely to stay low, we expect inflation to remain... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
