Global Economics Chart Pack World economy more resilient than the markets While the latest data have raised fresh questions about the strength of the US economy, we think activity will recover because income growth remains strong while the drags from dollar appreciation and... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Market turmoil not a major economic threat…yet The sharp falls in equity prices since the turn of the year are unlikely to prompt households or businesses to rein in their spending. In fact, when set against some measures of domestic activity, it... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Government bonds – is Japan the next Switzerland? The 10-year Japanese government bond yield has fallen to a record low of less than 0.1% following the Bank of Japan’s decision to cut its deposit rate to -0.1%. We now forecast that the 10-year JGB... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will workers gain from the recovery? While we are positive about the prospects for productivity growth, we don’t think workers will fully benefit from this and the gains will only partially feed through to higher wage growth. This means... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK weathers market mayhem well so far Financial markets got off to a tumultuous start to the year, but the economy has begun 2016 on a slightly stronger footing. The Markit/CIPS surveys point to quarterly GDP growth of around 0.6%, a... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack A weak start to the year Hard data for the fourth quarter of last year, including GDP estimates for some countries and industrial production and retail sales figures for the region as a whole, suggest that euro-zone GDP... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jan.) Stronger-than-expected Turkish inflation in January, of 9.6% y/y, was partly driven by administered price hikes and what is likely to be a temporary unwinding of the impact of the decline in global... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite a small drop last month, consumer confidence remains strong. However, household inflation expectations are now approaching levels last seen before the Bank of Japan launched Quantitative and... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & Producer Prices (Dec.) December’s fall in euro-zone unemployment was encouraging, but the rate remains too high to boost wage growth. And the still deeply negative rate of producer price inflation points to more... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How far and how fast will inflation and interest rates rise? The tumble in inflation from the most recent peak of just over 5% in late-2011 to an average of 0% in 2015 has provided a welcome boost to the economy. But with near-zero rates of inflation now in the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds rates, no change likely in 2016 The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its repo rate on hold at 6.75% today and, while the consensus is expecting further modest loosening later this year, we think that rates will remain unchanged... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA feeling the heat from China slowdown While the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged the threat posed by a weaker global economy when it left interest rates on hold at 2.0% today, we don’t think it went far enough. With the outlook for... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to cut rates to -1.0% Amid concerns about the sustainability of its large-scale asset purchases, the Bank of Japan now looks likely to rely increasingly on lowering the interest rate on central bank reserves to deliver... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
