China Economics Update New Year distortions drag inflation down Following a spike in January to a near-three-year high, consumer price inflation is likely to have fallen last month to a six-month low. This should be the nadir for inflation this year. Looking ahead... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Signs of strong global growth continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that the strong start to the year continued in February. The global composite PMI remained close to a three-year high and is consistent with world GDP growth of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rising inflation starting to hit households Resilient consumer spending was the main reason why GDP growth held up so well in the wake of the Brexit vote. However, there have been signs that the exchange-rate induced rise in inflation is... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much of higher costs will firms absorb? Companies’ margins are starting to bear the brunt of the exchange-rate induced rise in costs. And given the deterioration in consumer confidence, slower employment growth and the strong competitive... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Feb.) The jump in Turkish inflation last month, to 10.1%, probably marks the peak this year, but the headline rate will remain far above the central bank’s target. Despite the dire inflation outlook, the... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Low labour mobility limiting wage gains The national accounts data show that wage growth has slowed in recent quarters even as the labour market has continued to tighten. With the lifetime employment model preventing employees from... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small decline in consumer confidence in February is not particularly worrying as sentiment had reached a multi-year high in January. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have been stable... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Spike in inflation nothing to worry about The sharp rise in headline inflation across Emerging Asia is unlikely to be the trigger for the region’s central banks to start tightening monetary policy. The increase is almost entirely due to an... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Jan.) Household spending rebounded sharply in January as the labour market continued to tighten. However, price pressures remain subdued as the boost from higher energy prices is dampened by weak service... 3rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory has raised concerns in some quarters that the country could be at risk of a long and damaging period of deflation. There are good reasons to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Poised for a resurgence? The government’s demonetisation measures have caused growth in India to slow but the economy is set to recover as consumption and investment rebound. Longer-term prospects have also been boosted as... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Feb.) February’s rise in German consumer price inflation to 2.2% reflected food and energy effects. Core inflation remained subdued, implying that rising price pressures in the euro-zone’s largest economy... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The PMIs for Emerging Asia in February were mostly encouraging, suggesting that manufacturing conditions in the region are slowly gaining a firmer footing. 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Below target inflation leaves little room for error The recent slowdown in all three new core inflation measures suggest that the excess slack in the economy is building. The core CPI-common measure, which tracks the output gap most closely is of... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update January’s inflation jump unlikely to last EM inflation jumped in January on the back of a rise in fuel price inflation. However, this was driven entirely by base effects stemming from the drop in oil prices at the start of last year. These... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
