UK Economics Weekly MPC hawks to remain in the minority for a while yet This week, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee came close to voting to tighten monetary policy. At the same time, we saw claims that austerity is now over. It is remarkable therefore that... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Steady as she goes The latest economic data from across the emerging world have been mixed but our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth has levelled off at around 4% y/y. While China’s growth has now passed its peak... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack China awaits damp squib of MSCI inclusion MSCI will announce on Tuesday whether it will include China’s domestically-listed A-shares in its benchmark indices. It has chosen not to in the past on concerns over market access and official... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Part-time earnings point to mounting wage pressure Recent gains in the hourly wages of part-time workers are an early indication that the tight labour market is finally creating some upward pressure on wages. That would be a welcome development for... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Energy price hikes pile more pressure on households The utility bills of Australian households won’t rise by as much as the eye-watering 20% figure that has been catching the headlines as not all retailers have raised prices by that much and as prices... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Growth to accelerate, but downside risks mounting In our baseline scenario, which still includes a fiscal stimulus early next year, we expect GDP growth to accelerate from 2.2% this year to 2.5% in 2018. The downside risks to that scenario have... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) We think that the easing of inflation in Nigeria, which slipped to 16.3% y/y in May, will pave the way for looser monetary policy this year. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain and Oman: the Gulf’s weak spots Recent comments from the IMF and ratings agencies have put the focus back on the weak balance sheets of the Gulf’s two smallest economies, Bahrain and Oman. We have warned for some time that both... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (May) The continued weakness of core inflation, which fell to a two-year low of 1.7% in May, presents a dilemma for Fed officials. It won’t stop them from hiking interest rates later today, but it increases... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Regional recovery to continue, politics willing Latin America’s economy finally returned to growth in Q1 and the latest data suggest that the recovery continued in Q2. While domestic political developments are a key downside risk to the outlook, we... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Scope for further interest rate cuts in Iceland There is little sign that the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) expects to reduce interest rates further after today’s cut, but we think there is scope for a further appreciation of the króna to weigh on... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation stood in negative territory for a fifth consecutive month in May, but with subsidy cuts in the pipeline outright deflation is unlikely to last much longer. 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) The drop in headline Indian wholesale price inflation in May will increase the clamour for rate cuts. But stripping out the effect of volatile fuel and food prices, our measure of core WPI inflation... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation to stay low despite strong labour markets The average inflation rate in advanced economies is likely to be close to 2% this year and next as the world economy expands steadily and key commodity prices remain fairly stable. Despite weaker CPI... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) After rising unexpectedly in May, we think that CPI inflation is now not far away from its peak. Indeed, the effects of the lower pound already appear to be fading at the start of the production... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
