Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Sep.) September’s drop in inflation back below zero for the first time since January highlights that price pressures are very subdued and will add to pressure on the ECB to increase its policy support. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Reality bites Growth in the Gulf economies has held up well this year, but policymakers cannot delay the adjustment to low oil prices much longer. Tighter fiscal policy looms. Large savings and low debt levels mean... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Despite a slight rebound in September, small business confidence still points to tepid gains in industrial output, and the moderation in price pressures is worrying. However, the Bank of Japan will... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How far will interest rates rise? The peak rate of interest in the next tightening cycle is likely to be lower than in the past. Indeed, we estimate that the so-called “neutral rate” is now only around 3% in the US and UK and... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency falls compound inflation troubles for some EMs While inflation in the EM world is low on average, there are big divergences. In particular, many of the economies already struggling with high inflation are also those that have seen their currencies... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia raises interest rates, another hike likely by year-end The Central Bank of Colombia’s decision to hike interest rates took many analysts by surprise and demonstrated policymakers’ determination to keep inflation under control. However, with inflation... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Reasons for optimism are few and far between The past month has seen a raft of very bad news from key African economies. New government figures show that growth slowed in Q2 in Ghana and that South Africa’s economy actually contracted. Forward... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What’s behind the rebound in “core-core” inflation? A closely-watched measure of underlying inflation in Japan has rebounded recently, raising hopes that the Bank of Japan’s easing efforts are finally gaining traction. But most of the rebound in “core... 28th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the VW scandal put the brakes on German growth? The news last week that Volkswagen had cheated emissions tests prompted speculation that “Made in Germany” branding had been dealt a blow that could seriously jeopardize the economy’s prospects. Given... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s euro-zone monetary data point to low inflation and continued sluggish growth, adding to the evidence that more monetary stimulus from the ECB isnecessary. The run on Greek banks seems to have... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge turned negative last month, the rebound in “core-core” inflation bolsters policymakers’ upbeat outlook. But with the economy struggling to return to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Alarm bells sound in key economies Worries about slowing growth in China and tightening monetary policy in America have dented some of the optimism surrounding African economies. But the consensus is still far too bullish about the... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: where did it all go wrong? Brazil’s economic vulnerabilities have been brought into sharper focus in recent weeks after (yet another) slump in local financial markets. In this Focus we revisit key aspects of our research over... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Slowdown becomes a little sharper Although we wouldn’t recommend placing too much weight on the quarterly rate of GDP growth in any one quarter, the respective 0.2% and 0.4% rises in Australia and New Zealand in the second quarter... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
