UK Economics Chart Pack Spending slowdown underway A poor quarter on the high street in Q1 suggests that the slowdown in consumer spending growth is gathering pace. Moreover, with the full impact of the forthcoming rise in inflation yet to be felt... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia hints at OPEC deal extension Recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister, Khalid al-Falih, suggest that OPEC is edging towards an agreement to extend its oil production cuts when it meets in Vienna next month. Having ruled... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March’s drop in retail sales suggests that the consumer spending slowdown is gathering pace and adds to other evidence indicating that the economic recovery has slowed since the end of last year. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines – current account deficit no cause for alarm A sharp fall in the Philippines’ current account surplus is fueling fears that the economy is overheating. We think such fears are overdone. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Turning (a bit) hawkish on New Zealand The period of ultra-low inflation in New Zealand is well and truly over. While we still believe that the financial markets are too hawkish in expecting the official cash rate to start rising this year... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Apr.) The manufacturing PMI remained at a high level in April and suggests that the sector had a strong start to the second quarter. What’s more, there are mounting signs that price pressures are... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Politics dominates the headlines but market impact limited The escalation of political risks has dominated the headlines in EMs in recent weeks, but the fallout in financial markets has been surprisingly small. Equities in Russia and South Korea initially... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr.) Data to mid-April showed that Brazilian inflation has fallen below the BCB’s central target for the first time in almost seven years. We expect it to fall further over the coming months, before... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Household credit boom set to slow Household borrowing has soared over recent months, largely in the form of mortgages. But this boom is probably nearing an end. Restrictions on property purchases have been reintroduced in many cities... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1) The further strengthening in underlying price pressures in the first quarter has increased the chances that the RBNZ will raise interest rates earlier than we had been expecting. Both we and the RBNZ... 20th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation restrained by new competitive pressures The drop back in core CPI inflation to a 17-month low of 2.0% in March was partly due to weather effects, but also reflects an increase in competitive pressures in some sectors, which will persist for... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Have inflation worries gone for good? The recent decline in global inflation expectations has reflected some benign news both on inflation itself and on its key drivers. But even if inflation expectations fall further, markets should be... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia in no rush to hike rates despite further rise in inflation Consumer price inflation in Malaysia accelerated to a new eight-year high in March, but we see little prospect of a rate hike any time soon. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Slowing inflation in South Africa (which dipped to 6.1% y/y in March) supports our non-consensus view that the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates later this year. 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack KORUS renegotiation on the cards Confirmation that the US is seeking to renegotiate but not scrap the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS) is the latest sign that President Trump’s bark, at least when it comes to trade, is turning... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rising food inflation set to delay interest rate cuts Rising food inflation is likely to dissuade Peru’s central bank from cutting its policy interest rate for the time being. But with the economy slowing and core price pressure low, an easing of... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
