Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down for a fourth consecutive month to 2.3% y/y in May on the back of falling housing and utilities prices. Recent signs that growth in the non-oil economy is starting to... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second quarter rebound led by consumption After a disappointing first quarter, our calculations suggest that annualised GDP growth will rebound to more than 4% in the second quarter, driven by a big turnaround in consumption growth. Even... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Why the SARB will look through rand falls Market fears that South African policymakers will hike interest rates in response to a weak rand are overdone. We think that the SARB’s repo rate will be held at 6.50% for the rest of this year. 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Philippines: A two-year progress report on President Duterte Two years after coming to power, President Duterte of the Philippines has not been the disaster for the economy that some feared. Growth has remained strong, while economic policy has been left in the... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The unexpectedly weak inflation and retail sales data released today support our view that the Bank of Canada will stand pat at next month’s policy meeting, particularly given the ongoing uncertainty... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s hawkish shift, Turkey goes to the polls The more hawkish communications from Hungary’s MPC this week support our long-held view that ultra-loose monetary policy will be reined in this year. The hawkish shift caused market expectations for... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Heat rising over trade, inflation cooling While Japan has close economic ties to both the US and China, it shouldn’t be too badly affected if the trade dispute between them heats up. Perhaps the main concern is that a trade war would cause... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) The manufacturing PMI was little changed in June and still points to robust gains in industrial output. And the recent surge in crude oil prices is boosting price pressures. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (May) While a pick-up in energy and fresh food prices lifted inflation in May, underlying inflation weakened further and remains far below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Drop in airfares inflation a measurement problem The recent drop in airfare inflation has been a small drag on core inflation and, unlike last year’s fall in wireless telephone service prices, appears to be a genuine measurement problem. Underlying... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Headwinds building The latest hard activity figures suggest that EM growth held up well going into Q2, but that headwinds to the macroeconomic outlook are starting to build. The most recent trade figure show that EM... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Orr’s sticking to the plan The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 28 th June and Governor Orr may well repeat that rates will stay at this... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Wage growth generally still subdued Given the strength of their labour markets, wage inflation is likely to pick up a bit in the US, UK and, to a lesser extent, the euro-zone and Japan over the coming quarters. But as Jerome Powell... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
