Europe Economics Weekly Fall in oil prices to boost consumer spending The sharp drop in oil prices this month supports our long-held view that lower inflation will give consumer spending a boost. And we doubt that the sell-off in the equity market will do much damage to... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Oil and inflation, Ghosn and corporate governance The slump in global oil prices will deliver a windfall to Japanese firms and households but it creates a headache for the Bank of Japan: lower energy prices will knock half a percentage point off... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly RBI still battling, fuel price cuts, Maharashtra protests The RBI’s highly-publicised board meeting passed without much incident this week, but this has by no means eased the tensions between the central bank and government, nor concerns over the RBI’s... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The decline in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.25... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The jump in headline inflation in October reflected a boost from fresh food and energy prices that won’t last. However, we expect overall inflation to settle around 1% over coming months as price... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Last month’s rise in South African inflation was almost entirely due to fuel prices, so we still expect that the SARB will keep its key rate unchanged at its meeting tomorrow. 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Oil price fall to boost current account position As one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, India should be a key beneficiary of the recent slide in global oil prices. If prices remain lower, as we think likely, the oil import bill will... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still on course for December hike October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slumping oil prices radically alter inflation outlook The collapse in crude oil prices over the past month has radically altered the outlook for headline consumer price inflation over the next 12 months. The stronger dollar will only add to the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What would be the impact if Governor Patel quit? Indian media has been awash with reports this week that RBI Governor Urjit Patel could quit his post at the Bank’s board meeting on Monday. We think this is unlikely but if he were to resign, local... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Today likely to be the last hike in the cycle With inflation set to drop back steadily over the coming months, we think today’s rate hike by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) will be the last in the current cycle. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
