India Economics Weekly Sensex surges, another parliament washout? While many other major EM equity markets have dropped recently amid rising fears of a global trade war, Indian equities have surged, with the Sensex reaching an all-time high this week. But while... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The continued upward trend in core CPI inflation, which rose from 2.2% to 2.3% in June, keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in June and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last month’s hike in the repo rate with... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO up in the air, Egypt inflation jumps Reports that Saudi Arabia will scrap the Aramco IPO would, if confirmed, deal a symbolic blow to the Kingdom’s reform plans, but the economic impact should be limited. And the news flow on arguably... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Riksbank Minutes June’s rise in Swedish CPIF inflation entirely reflected higher energy inflation. But with domestic price pressures building, and the latest minutes showing that Riksbank officials are increasingly... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy returned to growth in Q2 The contraction in output in the first quarter was just a blip. The available activity data suggest that the economy returned to growth in the second quarter. But growth won’t be as strong this year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers are the only doves left in town Poland’s MPC bucked the regional trend today by retaining its ultra-dovish stance. However, we think that Polish policymakers will soon start to follow their neighbours. Inflation is likely to rise... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Trade war not the only headwind to Asian growth In the event that rising trade tensions lead to a significant fall in US imports from China, it would have a sizeable impact, not just on China, but also on other countries such as Taiwan and Malaysia... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Subdued inflation ties BoJ’s hands We expect GDP growth to be broadly in line with trend both this year and next. The labour market will remain very tight and wage growth may strengthen further. But sluggish demand after next year’s... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update What do tariffs mean for inflation? The tariffs announced so far are unlikely to boost Canadian inflation by much more than 0.1% pt, while the effects on economic growth should also be small. We therefore doubt that they will have much... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Trade strains build The main impact for EMs so far from rising global trade tensions and risk aversion has been on financial markets rather than on economic growth. But the resulting tightening of financial conditions –... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what to make of Erdogan’s new economic powers? Moves over the past 24 hours by Turkey’s President Erdogan to consolidate his power is likely to result in pressure for looser monetary and fiscal policy, but this will ultimately come at the cost of... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Jun.) June’s decline in core inflation won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates in September. But with price pressures building only slowly, the subsequent tightening cycle will be very slow. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egyptian inflation jumped to 14.4% y/y last month on the back of recent administered price hikes, but we still think that the next move in interest rates will be down. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation data show little change in price pressures last month beyond a mild boost from higher oil prices. Tariffs may start to inject some additional volatility into the price data soon but... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
