China Economic Outlook Domestic headwinds building Sentiment about China’s economic prospects has worsened recently as trade tensions have escalated. The tariffs announced so far won’t have a big impact though. Instead, we expect economic growth to... 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.6% y/y last month, from 4.5% y/y in June, was due almost entirely to a rise in energy inflation, while core inflation fell to an 18-month low. The next... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank hawkish, Norwegian housing recovering The main event this week was the Riksbank meeting , at which the Bank reiterated that it expected to raise interest rates in December. And data released since the meeting support the case for the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo makes the right noises Mexican financial markets have rallied this week following some business-friendly noises from left-wing president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo), but we’d be wary of reading too much into... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Letting go of equities, holding the renminbi Chinese policymakers are intervening to stem market declines, but unevenly: they appear much more concerned about the currency than about equities. Meanwhile, worries about the domestic outlook... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Brazilian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, from 2.9% y/y in May appears to be a result entirely of the truck drivers’ strike and electricity price hikes, and there are already signs that... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly EC to punish Poland, Turkish inflation surges The infringement procedure launched this week by the European Commission against Poland – in response to controversial legal reforms and the associated worries about the erosion of judicial... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Kenya rebounds as growth elsewhere slumps Recently-released figures have supported our view that Kenya’s economy will strengthen this year. Conditions elsewhere, however, seem to have deteriorated. And we think that next week’s data will... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Large MSP hikes, growing fiscal concerns Confirmation this week that the government will implement large increases in the minimum support price (MSP) of key monsoon crops supports our view that rural incomes will strengthen significantly... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Malaysia: China investment freeze to weigh on growth The Malaysian government’s decision earlier this week to suspend work on the US$20bn East Coast Railway Link points to a bleak future for Chinese investment in the country. Halting work on these... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (May) The acceleration in base pay in May is another sign that the tight labour market is boosting cost pressures. But we think that wages would still have to rise much faster to generate 2% inflation. 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt sticks to orthodoxy, positive signs from the Gulf The economic agenda laid out by Egypt’s new cabinet this week suggests that, despite the improvement in the budget position over the past couple of years, it will continue to tighten fiscal policy... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
