Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rebound in headline CPI inflation to 2.5% in October, from 2.3%, was mostly driven by a rise in gasoline prices that will be more than reversed over the next couple of months. The rest of the... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The consumer price figures support our view that inflation will probably be back at the 2% target next year. Nonetheless, this is predicated on a Brexit deal being struck. In the event of a “no deal”... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slight fall in Swedish inflation in October will not significantly influence the Riksbank’s decision on the timing of its first rate hike, which we still expect in December. Underlying inflation... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Oct.) The rise in wholesale price inflation in October was due in large part to a jump in core inflation. With underlying price pressures set to remain elevated, we think the RBI’s tightening cycle still... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation has already peaked The modest growth of unit labour costs and appreciation of the dollar this year suggest that core inflation is unlikely to rise much further. With inflation quiescent, we expect the Fed to continue... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: weaker lira softening the blow The sharp fall in the Turkish lira since the start of the year has pushed up inflation and caused financial conditions to tighten markedly, tipping the economy into recession. But there are signs that... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The rise in regular pay growth to a fresh post-crisis high and weak productivity growth suggests that we are right to think that rates will rise further than is priced into markets next year if a... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Industrial Production (Sep.) A renewed drop in food inflation pulled down headline inflation in October, but with core inflation rising again we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Egyptian inflation in October, taking it above the upper bound of the central bank’s end-year target range, raises the risk that policymakers will hike interest rates at this week... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Oct.) October’s weaker-than-expected inflation data suggest that the Norges Bank will be in no hurry to raise interest rates again. We expect it to wait until next March before making its next move, and... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Oct.) Headline consumer price inflation remained elevated in October. But with core inflation subdued and producer price inflation easing, we doubt policymakers will be too concerned. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q3 growth hit by temporary drop in car production The slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth to just 0.2% in Q3 came as a major disappointment, but there are good reasons to expect the economic expansion to regain a little pace in the quarters... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Mexican inflation in October confirms that September’s rise was just a blip, and we expect the headline rate to decline further in the coming quarters. Today’s data won’t be enough to... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Oct.) Chilean inflation decline from 3.1% to 2.9% y/y in October, but with the headline rate likely to resume its upward trend this month and recent labour market data improving, we still think that another... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
