Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jun.) & Swedish Production (May) June’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster imported inflation, which we doubt will last. Domestic price pressures remain subdued, so we expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged until... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have stayed well above target in June, due in large part to core inflation remaining elevated by the standards of the recent past. We think that this... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkish inflation spiralling out of control? Yesterday’s stronger-than-expected consumer price figures from Turkey provides further evidence that falls in the lira are feeding through into higher inflation more quickly and to a greater extent... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunging unemployment not enough for the BoJ The recent plunge in Japan’s jobless rate suggests that wage growth will pick up faster than we had been anticipating. But we suspect that unemployment is now close to a floor so wage growth may never... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Tighter monetary policy on the way in Sweden The Riksbank looks very likely to raise interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then raise interest rates more quickly in 2019 and 2020 than investors expect, causing the krona to... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much stronger-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation in June, to 15.4% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to hike interest rates, perhaps by 100bp, at its meeting later this month. 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is euro-zone inflation set to take off? Germany is the only major euro-zone economy where underlying inflation looks set to rise meaningfully in the next year or so. But even there, inflation is likely to remain lower than in major... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU talks at risk, Riksbank to signal Q4 rate rise The Swiss Government this week made no progress towards reaching a deal with Brussels that would see Switzerland retain its unrestricted access to the Single Market. With the anti-immigrant SVP party... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to hike interest rates by a more-than-expected 50 basis points today suggests that the central bank’s priority over the coming months will be to support the currency... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jun.) June’s inflation data are unlikely to change the ECB’s assessment of the outlook for monetary policy. We maintain our long-held view that the Bank will leave its interest rates unchanged until... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Inflation rise tests the RBI's credibility A sharp rise in inflation over recent months, and a jump in household inflation expectations, has raised concerns that the RBI has fallen behind the curve and is squandering its hard-won inflation... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (May) & Tokyo CPI (Jun.) While industrial output fell slightly in May, the economy should have returned to growth in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the labour market continues to tighten and there are signs that this is now... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Republic: More tightening in 2018 & 2019 The statement and press conference following today’s Czech MPC meeting – at which the Council resumed its tightening cycle – were on the hawkish side, supporting our view that further rate hikes are... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Weak performance in key economies Figures released over the past month confirmed that Africa’s larger economies have all struggled in 2018. South Africa, where GDP actually fell in Q1, was the worst performer. Elsewhere, figures from... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
