China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) The lower-than-expected rate of CPI inflation means that a hike in interest rates in August is less clear cut. However, we still think that it remains more likely than not. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) June’s softer-than-expected inflation print supports our view that fears of a rate hike are misplaced. We think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year, before cutting its key interest rate... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia CPI (Jun) The removal of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) was the key reason behind the sharp fall in inflation in Malaysia last month. Although inflation is likely to remain low for the rest of the year, we... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines infrastructure drive: too much, too fast? The big push to update the Philippine’s infrastructure has led to a number of painful side effects, including a worsening external position, a falling currency and an increase in inflation. However... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - Consumer Prices (Q2) The small strengthening in underlying price pressures in the second quarter is unlikely to make the RBNZ any keener to raise interest rates when it is becoming clearer that economic growth is slowing... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Policymakers don’t put much weight on the wholesale price measure of inflation, but the fact that it surged to its highest rate in almost five years in June and looks set to remain elevated suggests... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan talks, markets tumble Turkish President Erdogan’s decisions this week to exclude investor-friendly members from his new cabinet and renew his calls for lower interest rates have rattled local financial markets and... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria: Conditions improved in Q2 Survey and output figures released this week suggested that conditions in Nigeria and South Africa improved in Q2. South African retail sales figures out next week will probably provide more evidence... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
