Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation: how concerned should we be? The rise in global agricultural prices in recent months has sparked concerns about a surge in EM food inflation. While it would be remiss to dismiss these, we think the impact may not be as severe as... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the euro-zone see a US-style jump in inflation? Euro-zone inflation is likely to keep increasing as the economy re-opens, but we doubt it will rise as high as in the US. That’s because base effects will be smaller and the rebound in consumer... 19th May 2021 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation in April, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by energy price effects but there were signs that broader price pressures are starting to build. But even so, we think... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
RBNZ Watch Housing mandate won’t change the Bank’s outlook While the Bank will acknowledge the new house price requirements in its remit it is unlikely to respond to them with immediate policy changes. On that basis we expect the RBNZ to keep policy settings... 19th May 2021 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Producer price jump unlikely to boost inflation much Producer prices are rising the most in years, but this largely reflects global supply shortages that should abate as vaccines are rolled out. We expect consumer price inflation to average a muted 0.6%... 19th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Nationwide state of emergency touch and go Off the back of the weak Q1 GDP data, we now expect output to only rise 2% across 2021. The economy is unlikely to recover much in Q2 as cases are close to record highs and calls for a nationwide... 19th May 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Consumer Prices (Apr.) The jump in CPI inflation from 0.7% in March to 1.5% in April (consensus forecast 1.4%) was almost entirely driven by energy price effects, which will only be temporary. We doubt a sustained increase... 19th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Near-term inflation pressures mount Near-term inflationary pressures appear to be building. Some of this reflects factors that are likely to be only temporary, such as the “reopening inflation” associated with the easing of virus... 17th May 2021 · 15 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slight drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 18.1% y/y in April, on the back of easing food price pressures will provide some ammunition to the doves on the MPC and means that it is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market implications of slower growth in China We think slowing economic growth in China – highlighted again by today’s economic data – has several key implications for the country’s financial markets. 17th May 2021 · 6 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The surge in Indian wholesale price inflation in April was driven in large part by the rally in commodity prices, which we think will reverse over the coming months. That should allow the RBI to keep... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (Apr.) The latest inflation figures for Israel provided few signs that the reopening of the economy resulted in a pick-up in price pressures in April. This supports our view that inflation will remain in... 14th May 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) & Industrial Production (Mar.) India’s consumer price inflation dropped to a three-month low in April, adding to evidence elsewhere that the recent tightening of virus restrictions has not been as economically disruptive as the... 12th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update How far will rising commodity prices boost inflation? We think that the broad-based rally in commodity prices will go into reverse later this year, so the upward pressure on inflation in advanced economies should be temporary. But there is a clear risk... 12th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further jump in Brazilian inflation to 6.8% in April makes another 75bp rate hike (to 4.25%) at the next central bank meeting in June highly likely. But the breakdown of the data provides reason... 11th May 2021 · 2 mins read
