Asia Economics Update Malaysia: BNM unlikely to change policy With growth easing and inflation very low, Bank Negara Malaysia’s decision to leave its main policy rate on hold at 3.25% today was no surprise. While the risks are skewed towards looser policy, we... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile prepares the ground for rate hikes The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% flagged that a tightening cycle will begin in the coming months. We remain comfortable with... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have eased in August, in large part due to another fall in food inflation. But more important from the policy perspective, core inflation is likely to... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Higher oil and food prices won’t prevent inflation falling The rises in energy and agricultural commodity prices and sterling’s recent fall will put some upward pressure on inflation, but we doubt that these factors will prevent it from easing from 2.5% now... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing growth continues to weaken The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI in August adds to the signs that EM growth lost momentum in Q3. The surveys also show that price pressures are building in parts of the emerging world. 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Aug.) In August, Swiss inflation was unchanged at its joint-highest level in over eight years. But underlying price pressures are subdued, and we think that falling oil prices and exchange rate effects will... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Aug.) August’s PMIs for the Gulf economies suggest that fiscal stimulus has continued to support a recovery in Saudi Arabia, but weaker external demand is weighing on growth in the UAE. Meanwhile, Egypt’s... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation jumped again in August, reaching 17.9% y/y, and it is likely to rise even further over the coming months. The central bank has just stated that the inflation figures will prompt a... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong growth, weak inflation Euro-zone data published this week showed a picture of fairly strong growth but continued subdued inflationary pressure. In the coming years, we expect GDP growth to slow, but underlying inflation to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines to scrap rice quotas, new tax in Malaysia The Philippines looks to be on the verge of passing legislation to allow in more rice imports. If the bill passes, it should lead to a sharp drop in inflation and would reduce the pressure for further... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina back in crisis The sell-off in the Argentine peso this month gathered pace after the government’s impromptu request to draw down more of its IMF bailout. Rather than soothing market tensions, this reinforced... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish inflation to soar, Ukraine on the rocks Turkish CPI figures due on Monday are likely to show that inflation rose to its highest level since 2003, but government pressure means that this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to hike... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) August’s small decline in euro-zone inflation won’t deter the ECB from ending its net asset purchases this year. But core inflation is still not on a sustained upward trend, so the Bank will be in no... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea: rate hike this year looking increasingly unlikely The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today came as no great surprise given the recent deterioration in the labour market. Looking ahead, with headwinds to growth... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Fuel price hikes, equities soar, demonetisation failure Fuel prices have risen to record highs in most of India’s major cities in recent weeks. This creates a political headache for the ruling BJP ahead of next year’s general election. However, the price... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Tokyo CPI (Aug.) The third consecutive decline in industrial production in July suggests that growth will slow in Q3. Meanwhile, the tight labour market is starting to boost price pressures. 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
