Asia Chart Pack Asian currencies remain resilient Asian currencies have continued to hold up pretty well over the past few weeks despite the turmoil in EM currency markets. Since the start of August, the Korean won and the Thai baht have actually... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Turkey worries rock South Africa, less effect elsewhere Fears that financial turbulence in Turkey were the first sign of broader problems rumbled markets across the emerging world in August, with South Africa one of the hardest-hit. The country has Africa... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank on pause ahead of October rate rise Even if NAFTA negotiations are concluded successfully this week, the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before it raises interest rates. 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged up in July on the back of stronger food inflation, although underlying price pressures eased. We expect that headline inflation will rise a little further over the rest of this... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble hit by sanctions, MNB to change tack The Russian ruble came under pressure this week as investors worried that US sanctions will be ramped up. For now, though, we don’t think that this will have a significant near-term impact on the... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoT signals rate hike, Malaysia pushes back on BRI Stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP figures this week and the Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) increasingly hawkish rhetoric suggest a 25bp rate hike is likely at its next meeting on 19 th September. However, with... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola turns to IMF, Rand wobbles, Zambia holds rates Few details about Angola’s request for IMF aid have been released, but any deal would boost investor confidence. We revised down our rand/dollar exchange rate forecasts this week. A tweet from... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Inflation set to pick up Inflation has been held back by plunging mobile phone costs and competition from online retailers. The main factor, however, are deeply engrained deflationary expectations among households and firms... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price gains remain driven by volatile fresh food and energy inflation while underlying inflation remains subdued. Price pressures should strengthen ahead of next year’s sales tax hike but... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil & Mexico inflation to head in opposite directions Inflation in both Brazil and Mexico has been a bit higher than we had anticipated over the past few weeks, but we think the broad trend over the next year or so will be up in Brazil, and down in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports still lagging behind global demand The merchandise trade deficit narrowed to a 17-month low of $0.6bn in June, thanks to a 4.1% monthly rise in exports and a small fall in imports. But both moves were largely due to big swings in... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO on hold, Bahrain debt fears ease Reports this week suggest that Saudi policymakers may be close to shelving the Aramco IPO, which would reinforce concerns that the country’s commitment to the Vision 2030 reforms is waning. Elsewhere... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) Even though the manufacturing PMI still points to robust gains in industrial production, there are signs that the prospect of a global trade war is weighing on external demand. 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Revising down our rand forecasts The rand’s recent falls have prompted us to downgrade our end of year forecasts. We now think that the currency will slip from 14.4/$ to 15/$ by the end of 2018 and to 15.5/$ by the end of 2019. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) July’s stronger-than-expected inflation was almost entirely due to sharp rise in fuel costs. Core inflation remained stable, and we think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year. 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
