US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6%y/y in March, was driven by a rise in food and petrol inflation, both of which should prove temporary. Copom is likely to look through... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar.) The relatively high Egyptian inflation reading, of 14.2% y/y in March, reduces the probability that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at the next meeting in late May. But if we’re right... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Mar.) The pick-up in core inflation pressures in Norway in March suggests that the Norges Bank will stay in tightening mode for now. However, given our forecast for oil prices to fall this year, we think... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech CPI (Mar.) The rise in Czech inflation to a six-year high of 3.0% y/y in March was driven primarily by a pick-up in food inflation and probably is not enough to convince the central bank to hike rates next month... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Mar.) The small rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.0% y/y, is likely to keep Banxico hawkish in the very near term. But the headline rate should resume its decline in H2, paving the way for interest... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Mar.) Chilean inflation picked up from 1.7% y/y in February to 2.0% y/y in March, but we still think that the central bank is unlikely to restart its tightening cycle until 2021. 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Mar.) Headline CPI inflation will have remained low in March, even if, as we suspect, it rose slightly as food inflation continues to pick up. The RBI will almost certainly follow up its cumulative 50bp of... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Russian inflation, to 5.3% y/y last month, should help to reassure the central bank that January’s VAT hike hasn’t translated into a marked strengthening of price pressures... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Capacity constraints set to loosen again soon The Bank of Japan’s claims that capacity shortages were the most pronounced since the early 1990s last year jar with the slowdown in economic activity and the fact that underlying inflation remains... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkish inflation was stable at 19.7% y/y in March and, while we expect it to resume its downward trend in the coming months, in the near-term at least monetary policy will remain tight to support the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.), Final Mfg PMIs (Mar.) March’s decline in euro-zone headline inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter, so the continued weakness in the manufacturing PMIs will be a bigger worry for the ECB. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) The Q1 Tankan revealed a sharp deterioration in activity at the start of the year. That suggests that the easing in capacity and staff shortages that started in manufacturing should soon spread to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Consumer sentiment softens, inflation risks rise The latest central bank surveys suggest that firms turned more upbeat this quarter as trade tensions eased and banks expanded lending. However, this positive shift in business sentiment has yet to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
