India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Consumer price inflation crept only a little higher last month. But with core inflation still well above the Reserve Bank’s target, we think that the tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The second consecutive modest rise in core consumer prices in September, together with the sell-off in the stock market, won’t be enough to prevent the “crazy’ Fed from raising rates again in December... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rebound in non-energy inflation in September will reassure the Riksbank that it is right to be planning to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. We expect underlying inflation to continue... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s strong inflation data are unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s plans to wait until Q1 next year before raising interest rates again. Looking beyond that, we think that falling oil prices... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 16.0% y/y last month was driven almost entirely by higher food inflation but, even so, it probably means that the central bank’s easing cycle will be paused for a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Gradual slowdown to continue Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker global demand will drag on regional exports. With domestic demand also likely to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) The further rise in Mexican inflation in September will provide yet more ammunition to the hawks within Banxico. But with inflation now likely to have peaked, we still expect the next move in interest... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Good times continue Domestic demand will pick up speed ahead of next year’s sales tax hike, extending one of Japan’s strongest runs of growth since the 1980s, and price pressures will strengthen. But weaker domestic... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech & Hungarian CPI (Sep.) We think that the unexpected drop in Czech inflation last month, to 2.3% y/y, will persuade the MPC to pause its tightening cycle at next month’s meeting. Elsewhere, a further rise in inflation in... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The sizeable rise in Chilean inflation to 3.1% y/y in September, taken together with hawkish comments from policymakers, supports our view that rates will begin to rise at the central bank’s meeting... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
