Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & International Trade (Feb.) Recent declines in capacity constraints and inflation expectations suggest that March’s pick-up in core inflation is likely to be reversed before long. Meanwhile, the slump in export volumes in... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) The surprising softness of CPI inflation in March (it stayed at 1.9%) suggests that weak demand on the high street as Brexit uncertainty reached its peak may have forced retailers to discount their... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Mar.) Inflation in South Africa picked up to 4.5% y/y in March due to petrol prices, but we think that it will soon ease. We’re sticking to our non-consensus view that policymakers will cut late this year. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that GDP growth will remain weak while core inflation could fall sharply. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada’s next move will be to cut interest... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Mar.) The rebound in March’s wholesale price inflation is unlikely to prevent the RBI from cutting rates at its next policy meeting in June. But with underlying inflation set to rise further, there is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) March’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting interest rates again at the next policy meeting. But with core inflation still elevated, the latest data underline the risks from... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Mar.) Swedish inflation data for March, released this morning, lend further support to our view that the Riksbank will keep policy looser for longer than it and investors expect. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.) Higher food and oil prices pushed up headline inflation last month but broader price pressures remained subdued and we don’t anticipate an imminent turnaround in underlying inflation. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Mar.) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6%y/y in March, was driven by a rise in food and petrol inflation, both of which should prove temporary. Copom is likely to look through... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
