India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in September, in large part because the recent sharp fall in food inflation appears to have reversed. More important from the policy perspective, core... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in September, has already exceeded the BCB’s newly-published forecasts. And, taken together with comments from policymakers that hint at the start of a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in the Philippines to peak soon Inflation in the Philippines rose to a fresh nine-year high in September, but even if it starts to drop back over the coming months, pressure is likely to remain on the central bank (BSP) to tighten... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pauses, but isn’t done yet The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept rates on hold today, but flagged several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and explicitly shifted to a more hawkish... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Sweden Private Prod. (Aug.) September’s Swiss inflation data provided further evidence that despite strong GDP growth, domestic price pressures remain very weak. And with the franc’s recent appreciation dampening imported... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Sensex has further to fall, winter MSP hikes contained We think that the recent fall in Indian equities – down by another 4% this week – has further to run. Domestically, concerns over the scale of balance sheet problems in the shadow banking sector will... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Aug.) The strongest rise in regular earnings since 1997 should be followed by even stronger gains in coming months as the labour market tightens further. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Third-quarter slowdown a sign of things to come The world economy seems to have lost some momentum in the past few months and we expect it to slow further in the coming year. World trade growth has fallen sharply, though this is due to weakening... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi lifts oil output, Egypt’s external pressures easing Reports that Saudi Arabia will ramp up oil output over the coming months support our view that GDP growth will be stronger than most expect over the rest of this year and in the first half of 2019... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth appears to have ticked up in Q3 The Markit/CIPS all-sector output PMI was more or less unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2, consistent with GDP growth remaining steady at 0.4% q/q. However, we think that growth was a little bit stronger... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC in dovish mood … for now Poland’s MPC maintained a dovish stance today. On the face of it, low inflation suggests that this position is justified, but we think that policymakers are too sanguine on the outlook for consumer... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus No end in sight to “lowflation” in Switzerland After almost five years of deflation, consumer prices are finally rising in Switzerland. But much of this has reflected higher energy costs, while underlying price pressures are still very weak. We... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update When will the BCB shift to tightening? The timing of the Brazilian central bank’s first interest rate hike is likely to be determined by politics as much as economics. There’s a lot of uncertainty related to the outcome of the Presidential... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
