Latin America Economics Update Brazilian central bank looking through inflation rise Copom’s statement from last night’s meeting highlighted that policymakers are not troubled at all by the recent jump in inflation and, rightly in our view, see it as temporary. If anything, they are... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) Egyptian inflation dropped back in April but given that it remained above target, the chance of an interest rate cut at the MPC meeting in two weeks’ time is touch and go. For now, though, we still... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Both official measures of inflation picked up last month but this was mostly due to supply-side factors and therefore shouldn’t be interpreted as clear evidence of stronger domestic demand. 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ will cut again before the year is out Subdued economic growth and a softening labour market mean that today’s interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be repeated before the year is out. 8th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y last month will provide reassurance to the central bank that inflation has now passed its peak. We expect the headline rate to ease further in the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still likely to cut before long The Reserve Bank of Australia made only the slightest downward revisions to its forecasts when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. But it noted that further improvements in the labour... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Apr.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in April due to another pick up in food inflation. However, it will have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target. That will be enough to prompt... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Apr.) The jump in the euro-zone’s core inflation rate in April was largely due to Easter timing effects, and is likely to be reversed in May. We expect the headline rate to fall below 1% towards the end of... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation data for April will come as some relief to the central bank. But with a number of downside risks facing the lira, policymaker’s recent dovish shift feels... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Apr.) This morning’s release of inflation data from Switzerland for April yielded no surprises and showed that price pressures remain almost completely absent. We expect the headline rate to fall close to... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Inflation to fall despite higher oil prices Data due to be released tomorrow are set to show a jump in inflation in April. But given that this rise will largely be the result of Easter timing effects, it is unlikely to be sustained. And while... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch Subdued data keep RBNZ on track to cut rates in May We expect the recent string of soft economic data will be enough for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to cut rates to 1.50% when it meets next week on Wednesday 8th May. Since the RBNZ shifted... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What explains the plunge in core inflation? In contrast to the sudden weakness in core inflation a few years ago, the latest plunge in core PCE inflation cannot be explained by idiosyncratic factors. Instead, it reflects a moderation in unit... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will firms pass on rises in labour costs? With CPI inflation still subdued, firms’ profit margins appear to have borne the brunt of the recent rises in wage costs. However, we suspect that firms will pass on rising costs to consumers in time... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland CPI (Apr.) The rise in Polish inflation to an 18-month high of 2.2% y/y in April was driven almost entirely by a pickup in food and fuel inflation. It appears that core inflation remained weak (at 1.5% y/y)... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
