Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) April’s modest rise in headline inflation to 2.0%, from 1.9%, was partly due to temporary factors so we expect inflation to edge back down in May. While base effects from last year mean that core... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Apr.) The small pick-up in Swedish inflation in April was caused by the later timing of Easter this year. Amid signs that economic growth has slowed sharply in the first half of 2019, we expect headline... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) The drop in wholesale price inflation in April will increase the clamour for another rate cut in June. But we think that underlying inflation will soon rise again, which underlines the risks... 14th May 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Further interest rate cuts in India look only a matter of time after headline inflation in April came in at a below-target 2.9% y/y. However, we continue to think that further monetary loosening is a... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Saudi Arabia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The subdued 0.1% m/m gain in core consumer prices last month was in part driven by falls in clothing and used car prices, which may be reversed in the coming months. But the bigger story has been the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr.) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.9% y/y in April, is unlikely to trouble Copom. The increase was driven by food, energy and administered prices; core inflation still looks soft. The... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian & Danish Consumer Prices (Apr.) Norwegian inflation data for April, released this morning, remained well above the Norges Bank’s 2.0% target and will reinforce policymakers’ current hawkish stance. 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Tariff hike, fiscal support, inflation risks The US hiked tariffs on Chinese goods on Friday. This escalation in trade tensions comes at a challenging time for the Chinese economy, with export growth already weak, fiscal support waning and swine... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Producer Prices (Apr.) With the rising possibility of a big escalation in the US-China trade dispute this week, March’s trade figures could represent the calm before the storm. The trade deficit widened trivially to $50.0bn... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexican inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, is likely to mark the peak and we expect the headline rate to decline over the next few months. This, combined with weak economic activity, will... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack April jump in inflation won’t last Euro-zone GDP growth was stronger than expected in Q1, at 0.4% q/q, but we suspect that it will slow again in the coming quarters. Activity was flattered by the comparison with a weak end to 2018 and... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rising services inflation to bolster case for rate hikes The sluggishness in CPI inflation can partly be explained by factors that will prove temporary. And with cost pressures building, there is scope for services inflation to push the CPI rate higher than... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the strength of Hungarian inflation? The recent pick-up in Hungarian core inflation is partly a result of tax changes but also reflects rapid wage growth, and this is likely to cause underlying price pressures to continue to build. We... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
