Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Running out of steam The Australian and New Zealand economies both appear to be running out of steam with growth slowing sharply in the second half of 2018. And we think the outlook is set to deteriorate further. Annual... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Will the RBA have to cut interest rates? We believe that GDP growth in Australia will fall well below potential this year as the housing downturn bites. That means that unemployment will soon start to rise again and underlying inflation will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Another rate cut likely The MPC is likely to use the recent confirmation that GDP growth slowed in Q4 and the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for another interest rate cut at the conclusion of its... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in the middle of March is unlikely to trouble Copom. Inflation should begin to decline again in Q2. And we still expect the Selic rate to remain unchanged... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Mexican inflation remained above target, at 4.0% y/y, in the first half of March and will probably stay around this rate in Q2. But we expect that the headline rate will decline during the second half... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The recent decline in unit labour cost growth suggests that February’s drop in one of the Bank’s measures of core inflation is a sign of things to come. Although retail sales volumes performed a touch... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation remained flat in February and will probably start to slow over the coming months due to falling energy prices and moderating underlying price pressures. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: no more tightening, but cuts unlikely Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates unchanged at 6.0% at its meeting today, and there was little indication in the statement that it is likely to adjust monetary policy anytime soon. We expect rates to... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Slowing activity reduces inflation risks further We expect headline inflation to fall further below 2% in the coming months, largely due to a renewed decline in oil prices and an associated fall in energy inflation. The previous strength of economic... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Feb.) South African inflation stayed low in February, and while it will probably pick up over the coming months, it will remain within target. We hold the non-consensus view that the next move will be a cut... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Diverging policy paths lend support to the krone Price pressures generally remained subdued in Switzerland and the Nordic economics in February. Core inflation is still stubbornly low in Switzerland and while it is higher in Sweden, it has now been... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
