Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation was unchanged between July and August but we still expect it to rise a little over the rest of this year as underlying price pressures pick up. 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican inflation to resume its decline Today’s softer-than-expected inflation data from Mexico, which showed that price pressures were unchanged in the first half of this month, supports our view that the headline rate will resume its... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central banks in tightening mode Central banks in Emerging Europe shifted into tightening mode this month as policymakers in Turkey, Russia and Ukraine hiked interest rates in response to pressure on their currencies. The Czech MPC... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Investors under-pricing NAFTA risks The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) Headline inflation looks set to continue falling to around 2% by the end of the year, as energy price inflation drops back. But with all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures picking... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in inflation won’t worry MPC, Brexit mood sours The unexpected rise in inflation in August came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can afford to sit tight until Brexit uncertainty has been... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) Underlying inflation climbed to a four-month high in August and should pick up further ahead of next year’s sales tax hike. But price pressures will weaken once the tax has been raised and the BoJ’s 2... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
