Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2021) The rebound in the composite PMI in February supports our view that the economy is coping with the second state of emergency better than most had anticipated. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jan. 2021) Headline inflation recovered substantially in January due to the removal of the artificial drag from the Go To Travel campaign, and we think it will rebound further over the coming months. 19th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jan.) Swedish inflation rose sharply, as expected, in January and is set rise above the Riksbank’s 2% target in Q2. In any case, policymakers have signalled that they will look through any temporary breach... 18th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Inflation rebounded to 1.0% in January and is set to rise to 3% or higher in April. That spike will mainly reflect base effects linked to the sharp falls in energy prices early last year but, as the... 17th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The rise in CPI inflation from +0.6% in December to +0.7% in January (consensus forecast +0.6%) was trivial given that leaps to around +2.0% in April and to around +2.5% by the end of the year appear... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jan.) The latest jump in Nigerian inflation, to 16.5% y/y in January, on the back of surging food price pressures, is likely to increase pressure on the central bank (CBN) to tighten monetary policy. But as... 16th February 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Industrial Production (Dec.) CPI inflation dropped back to a fraction above the RBI’s long-term target in January, its lowest since 2019. It should remain well inside the target band over coming months as easing supply... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP (Q4 2020) & Swiss CPI (Jan. 2021) This larger-than-expected increase in Norwegian mainland GDP in Q4 confirms that Norway is faring much better than its European peers. Activity is likely to have weakened at the start of 2021, but... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Long-term Global Economic Outlook COVID legacy will be higher debt, not weaker growth We do not expect the pandemic to do permanent damage to global economic growth as vaccines allow activity to resume. There will be sustained behavioural changes, but these need not be negative. Note... 12th February 2021 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Spain set for short-term gains, but long-term pain Spain’s economy had been set for a bright 2021 as the vaccine offered hope of a bumper summer tourism season. But the poor start to the rollout means that is now looking less likely. Moreover, the... 10th February 2021 · 21 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.) Core Norwegian inflation edged down in January and will continue to fall back this year as the inflationary boost from previous krone weakness fades. The Norges Bank will be in no rush to raise... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Jan.) Headline consumer price inflation returned to negative territory last month, but this was largely due to a shift in the timing of the Lunar New Year. In fact, producer price inflation turned positive... 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation to be stable despite stronger exchange rate While the exchange rate has strengthened sharply, goods prices are unlikely to fall. That should allow rising services prices to keep underlying inflation stable. 10th February 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update How to spot if the COVID-19 crisis has left a scar Even though we don’t expect there to be much, if any, long-term economic scarring from the COVID-19 crisis, a surge in the number of businesses going insolvent, a jump in the long-term unemployment... 9th February 2021 · 5 mins read
