US Economics Update Surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that the recent acceleration in wage growth has further to run. 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Labour gaining the upper hand Summer bonuses rose the most since 1991 this year. That is partly a reflection of the surge in corporate profits in recent years. But workers are earning more than their fair share of the pie. Labour... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The rise in Egyptian inflation to 14.2% y/y last month, coupled with the backdrop of the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Aug.) Following August’s increase in core inflation to a 19-month high, the Norges Bank is almost certain to raise interest rates at next week’s meeting. But policymakers remain cautious about the impact of... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Inflation & Trade (Aug.) Consumer price inflation picked up last month, as African swine flu led to a jump in pork prices. But with broad price pressures still relatively subdued, it’s still too soon to sound the alarm on... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Aug.) The third consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. Accordingly, assuming the peso holds up reasonably well between now and... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Economy holding up despite EM problems Despite the steady flow of negative news about protectionism and crises in emerging economies, global growth is holding up well in Q3. Moreover, the labour market has continued to strengthen... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa in recession, Focac summit, Kenya fuel costs Figures released this week showed that South Africa’s economy performed even worse than we’d thought in Q2. Headline growth will probably recover in the second half of the year, but we’ve downgraded... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Inflation fears overdone, more policy tweaks Chinese consumers appear to have become more worried about inflation recently. But these concerns may reflect a broader sense of unease among households in response to a weakening labour market rather... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Assessing the inflation risk from African swine fever The spread of African swine fever in China has brought echoes of 2007 and 2011, when major pig disease outbreaks caused spikes in pork prices and headline inflation. But improvements in China’s... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: what will the CBRT deliver? Turkey’s central bank has all but confirmed that it will raise interest rates at next week’s MPC meeting and an increase of 350-400bp seems to be the bare minimum that will be needed to soothe... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Aug.) The decline in Brazilian inflation in August, to 4.2% y/y, adds to the reasons to think that Copom won’t raise interest rates at its meeting this month. Moreover, core inflation still looks quite soft... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt sends mixed signals, Bahrain gets breathing room Egypt’s finance minister stated this week that the government will continue to prioritise bringing down its high debt-to-GDP ratio, but recent developments have raised fresh concerns that the appetite... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.1% y/y in August, combined with Governor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments yesterday, will add fuel to expectations for an interest rate hike. But with underlying price... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
