UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Aug.) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation came as a bit of a nasty surprise, but it does not alter our view that inflation will be back at the 2% target by this time next year. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation slowed to 4.9% in August, which supports our view that policymakers at the SARB will leave their key rate on hold at 6.50% at their meeting tomorrow. 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack GDP growth set to slow The Swiss and Nordic economies generally performed well in Q2, but most of the timelier survey indicators point to slower growth to come. Switzerland’s economy expanded very strongly in the first half... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade war set to escalate The US appears to be on the verge of expanding its tariffs to cover a total of $250bn of Chinese goods, the production of which generates 1.3% of China’s GDP. The proposed $200bn tariff list includes... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Some signs of building price pressures Following a long period of tightening labour markets, wage pressures are mounting, and we think this will lead to a gradual pick-up in average earnings growth. Core inflation rate will probably rise... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hawkish, Zambia’s debt troubles There are growing suggestions that the South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at its meeting next week, but the weakness of the latest activity data and of inflation expectations mean we... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Diaspora to the rescue? The continued weakness of the rupee has triggered speculation this week that policymakers are about to adopt special measures to shore up the currency. One possibility is the reintroduction of a... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Aug.) Although CPIF inflation was above target in August, the further decline in non-energy inflation will worry the Riksbank. If it remains soft, then the Bank will probably keep rates on hold until early... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) The moderation in wholesale price inflation in August was in large part due to another drop in food inflation. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August is unlikely to derail the Fed’s plans to continue hiking interest rates once a quarter, with another increase coming later this... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi construction, Jordan tax plan August’s rise in Egyptian inflation means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates on hold at this month’s MPC meeting. But signs that core price pressures have eased means that it won... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Industrial Production (Jul.) Another sharp drop in food inflation pulled down headline consumer price inflation in August. But core inflation remains high and we still think that the Reserve Bank’s tightening cycle has a little... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Most central banks unlikely to follow the Philippines Indonesia and the Philippines are likely to tighten monetary policy aggressively over the rest of this year. The Philippines may even call an emergency policy meeting in the face of soaring inflation... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
