Emerging Europe Data Response Israel Consumer Prices (May) The rise in inflation in Israel to 1.5% y/y in May was partly driven by food and energy, but there are some signs that underlying price pressures have increased. We think that inflation will rise... 15th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) The second consecutive drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.9% y/y in May, will probably go some way towards easing policymakers’ recent concerns about high and rising inflation. While we... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Saudi inflation to 5.7% y/y in May is likely to be followed by another increase in June, but the headline rate will fall sharply in July to around 1.0-1.5% y/y as the effects of last year... 15th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) India’s consumer price inflation jumped to a six-month high in May on the back of an unexpected surge in core inflation, which we suspect is a result of rising commodity prices now seeping into retail... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation surged to a three-decade high in May on the back of the sharp rise in global commodity prices and will be a concern for policymakers. However, there are reasons to think that... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Lasting price pressures building The continued surge in prices last month was again mostly concentrated in sectors reopening or facing intense supply constraints, which allows the Fed to stick with its “largely transitory” story for... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly No inflation scare in Scandinavia or Switzerland… If there is a global inflation scare, the Scandinavians are yet to get the memo. In a week when we learnt that core inflation hit a 28-year high in the US in May, we also learnt that the core... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Inflation fears, Euro 2020 hopes The mounting evidence that price pressures are rising is a threat to our forecast that CPI inflation won’t spend a long time above the 2% target until late in 2023. The good news, though, is that if... 11th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t expect higher inflation to derail US equities While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of... 11th June 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon puts a cloud over vaccine rollout The monsoon season has begun in India and the extent of the rains has a significant impact on the incomes of hundreds of millions of families given the high level of employment in agriculture. A good... 11th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update How concerning is the recent rise in inflation? A rise in inflation was always likely to happen this year as economies re-opened and energy prices recovered from last year’s sharp falls. But in the US in particular, the increase since the start of... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further jump in core CPI inflation to a 28-year high of 3.8% in May, from 3.0%, was again driven by the same handful of categories most directly affect by the lifting of virus restrictions. But... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egypt’s headline inflation rate rose to 4.8% y/y in May, the fastest pace recorded so far this year. But it remained below the lower bound of the central bank’s (CBE’s) target range, supporting our... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack Inflation risks rising The risks to our forecast that CPI inflation will rise from 1.5% in April to a peak of 2.6% in November before dropping back in 2022 are increasingly on the upside. Rises in shipping costs and global... 10th June 2021 · 9 mins read
