Europe Economic Outlook Missing the global tightening cycle The euro-zone should regain some momentum in the coming months, at least compared to its dire performance at the end of last year. But we think the economy will expand by just 1% in 2019 as a whole... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) December’s rise in inflation mainly reflected a statistical quirk and will be more than reversed in January. Indeed, we expect inflation to drop below 1.5% in the coming months. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Growth likely to slow further in 2019 The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The sharp fall in inflation in December in part reflects temporary factors that will reverse soon. But the bigger picture is that underlying price pressures will remain weak for the foreseeable future... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Dec.) Whatever the Bank of England thinks about yesterday’s failed Brexit vote, it will surely be pretty content with the news this morning that inflation has fallen to within a whisker of its 2% target for... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Tightening remains a distant prospect The Bank is getting a bit more concerned about the impact of prolonged monetary easing on financial stability. But with economic activity and inflation set to fall short of its forecasts yet again... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Flirting with zero Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has been flirting with zero since the start of the year. Not so long ago, it was climbing towards the 0.2% ceiling of the “tolerance band” managed by the Bank of... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The drop in headline consumer price inflation in December further diminishes the case for rate hikes in the near term. The RBI’s new governor seems keen to lower rates but, with core inflation still... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Dec.) Headline wholesale price inflation eased in December, further undermining the case for any further rate hikes in the near term. But the appointment of a dovish new governor of the RBI means we are... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How patient will the Fed be? With financial markets rebounding this week and the incoming domestic activity data relatively strong, we still expect the “patient” Fed to raise interest rates this year. But core PCE inflation looks... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.1% m/m fall in headline consumer prices in December won’t concern the Fed as it can be explained by the plunge in gasoline prices. But the 0.2% m/m gain in core prices, which left the core CPI... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a seven-month low of 3.7% y/y in December, coming alongside the continued strength of the real, means the central bank is likely to strike a more dovish line in the... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt CPI (Dec.) & Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The sharp fall in Egyptian inflation in December increases the chances that policymakers start to cut interest rates again at the next MPC meeting in February. If inflation falls a bit further this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway CPI (Dec.) & Sweden Production (Nov.) December’s stronger-than-expected inflation data for Norway suggest that the Norges Bank is almost certain to follow through with its plan to raise interest rates in March. But we think it will then... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Dec.) Following the drop back in oil prices, consumer price inflation returned below 2% last month. Meanwhile, producer prices are now on the brink of returning to deflation territory. Slowing inflation is... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
