Canada Economics Update Inflation to drop back towards 2% Headline inflation might surpass 3% in August, but by the end of the year it is likely to be little more than 2%. And with core inflation stable, the Bank is unlikely to pick up the pace of its... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycle continues EM central banks continued to tighten monetary policy in August. Policymakers in Argentina and Indonesia raised interest rates to support their currencies amid fears of contagion from the crisis in... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Jul.) The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% in July, from June’s 2.5%, was partly due to rising energy prices but also appeared to reflect a pick-up in general inflationary pressures. We think that the... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s easing cycle to resume next month The Egyptian central left interest rates on hold last night, but declining inflation means that the easing cycle is likely to resume at September’s MPC meeting. And we still think that interest rates... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Credibility is key for the RBI The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting – at which interest rates were hiked again – show that the MPC has placed great importance on preserving its recently-acquired credibility. With... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Bad loans on the rise Commercial banks’ non-performing loans (NPL) rose by RMB183bn in Q2, the biggest increase in over a decade. On paper, bad loans now make up just under 2% of all loans, the highest ratio since the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after an EM currency crisis? Both Turkey and Argentina have now suffered currency crises this year. In previous EM currency crises, economies experienced a sharp slowdown in GDP growth, averaging 5-6%-pts, and a rise in inflation... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Malaysia: what to make of Mahathir’s first 100 days Following his shock election victory at the start of May, 93-year-old Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has wasted no time in carrying out his main campaign promises. With his first 100 days in office... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update September rate hike by Norges Bank looks nailed on After leaving policy unchanged today, the Norges Bank looks almost certain to begin raising interest rates at its next meeting in September. But even as the central bank tightens monetary policy over... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: what next? The plunge in the Turkish lira is likely to push inflation above 20% and tip the economy into recession in the coming months. Our base case is that GDP growth will now average 3.0% over 2018 as a... 15th August 2018 · 15 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) As expected, CPI inflation ticked up for the first time since November last year in July. But as much of the rise was due to higher energy prices – which we doubt will be sustained – inflation should... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation moderated in July after hitting a five-year high in June. But core inflation remained elevated, supporting our view that the RBI’s tightening cycle still has a little further... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
