Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks return to the fore Events this month have highlighted the risks posed by politics to the region’s two largest economies. While Saudi Arabia initially suspended around half of its daily oil output following attacks on... 30th September 2019 · 14 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Not living up to their potential Economic growth has continued to ease in both countries in the first half of 2019. In Australia, GDP growth eased to 1.4% y/y in Q2. And while the government’s tax cuts may mean that consumption... 30th September 2019 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: weak inflation spurs another aggressive rate cut The Central Bank of Egypt shrugged off the market volatility following recent protests across the country and lowered interest rates by another 100bp, to 13.25%, at today’s meeting. So long as the... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
RBI Watch MPC likely to revert to “traditional” cut The key question ahead of the MPC meeting that concludes on Friday 4th October is not whether the committee will opt to cut rates again, but rather by how much. We think it will jettison the... 26th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure of 3.2% y/y in September leaves the door open to further monetary easing over the coming months. Beyond that, the large output is likely to keep inflation... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Where are we with Venezuela’s inflation? President Nicholas Maduro’s attempts to control inflation have had some effect, but without more severe measures we think that price pressures will probably remain extremely high over the coming... 23rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Underlying inflation to soften, regardless of oil prices Inflation has fallen in most economies, due partly to lower energy inflation. Our forecast that oil prices will stabilise in the months ahead is subject to upside risks from tensions in the Middle... 20th September 2019 · 14 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal stance, pork reserves, PBOC easing Headline government spending has started to contract but tax cuts mean that the budget deficit is still close to its widest ever and we think the fiscal stance will remain accommodative in the coming... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The slowdown in headline inflation in August has further to run once the sales tax hike leads to weaker price pressures. We think that inflation will eventually fall which will raise the clamour for... 20th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: Further rate cuts likely Today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly signals that its main priority at the moment is supporting the struggling economy. While we think further easing is likely, the central bank is likely... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Reigniting reforms The latest activity data for India have been disappointing but, despite the economy’s recent soft patch, developments over the past month should boost optimism over long-run prospects. In late August... 19th September 2019 · 9 mins read
RBNZ Watch RBNZ will cut further…just not yet Following the dramatic 50 basis point cut in August, we suspect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday 25 th September. However, the economy is clearly on... 19th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Consumer Prices (Aug.) After edging down to 1.9% in August, headline inflation looks set to decline by another couple of percentage points in the next few months. Admittedly, base effects will push inflation back towards 2%... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
