Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 2.3% y/y in July is unlikely to worry the central bank and, with the economy still very weak, we expect the Selic rate to stay at its current historic low through... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Debt restructuring, car sales strength The RBI’s new framework for banks to restructure loans to struggling borrowers should help ease near-term cash flow issues for firms and households that have been severely affected by the lockdown... 7th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.4% y/y in July is likely to be followed by a further modest increase over the next few months, but this shouldn’t prevent the central bank from cutting the policy... 6th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) Turkish inflation eased by more than expected in July, to 11.8% y/y, but this is unlikely to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle. Indeed, with pressure on the lira building, the next... 4th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (July), Manufacturing PMIs (July) Inflation in Switzerland now appears to have troughed, but it is set to remain frustratingly weak over the coming years and a headache for the SNB. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMIs from July suggest... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The rebound in consumer prices last month confirms that the disinflationary impact of the lockdowns in March and April is now going into reverse, but inflation is likely to remain muted over the... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jun.) The pick-up in Swedish inflation in June was a bit larger than expected but it was driven mainly by energy effects and is not a game changer. And while core inflation also edged up from May, against a... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) The wholesale price index is not the preferred measure of inflation for policymakers, but the broad-based rebound in the headline rate challenges our view that price pressures will ease this year... 14th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in India appears to be easing after an initial surge when the lockdown first came into effect. We expect headline inflation to continue falling towards the RBI’s 4% target, which should... 13th July 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor triggers deflation One consequence of the new policies announced by the Chancellor last week is that the UK will soon enter a period of deflation. But this will be the good form of deflation, which is temporary, boosts... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (Jun.) Previous falls in the krone will ensure that inflation stays above the Norges Bank’s target throughout H2. Nonetheless, this effect will fade in early-2021 and policymakers will be in no rush to raise... 10th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further rise in Mexican inflation to 3.3% y/y in June, from 2.8% y/y in May, was largely driven by higher fuel prices. We think this trend has a bit further to run, although it is unlikely to... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jun.) Egypt’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.6% y/y in June and will probably rise a bit further over the coming months. Crucially, though, we expect inflation to remain below the mid-point of the... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Producer prices rose last month for the first time since the outbreak of COVID-19, adding to evidence that industrial demand had mostly recovered by the end of Q2. Core inflation fell to its weakest... 9th July 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation unlikely to be a pressing concern Daily price data suggest that food inflation has eased over recent weeks and, with demand also likely to remain depressed, inflation does not appear to be a pressing concern. The focus of policymakers... 9th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Russian inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months. But this increase should prove temporary and inflation is likely to remain below the... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
