Europe Economics Update Inventories point to little inflationary pressure In contrast to the US where falling inventories may start to push up prices, euro-zone firms’ inventories suggest that near-term price pressures are weak. 16th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer resilience unlikely to last Consumer spending in Saudi Arabia seems to have bounced back quickly in recent months, but the steep VAT hike and the suspension of the Cost of Living Allowance means that this is unlikely to be... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) The increase in Nigerian inflation in August, to 13.2% y/y, will probably stay the hand of policymakers at next week’s MPC meeting. But, with a weak economic recovery, there may still be scope for an... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation edged up to 6.2% y/y in August as the effects of the VAT hike at the start of July continued to dominate. Inflation will remain elevated until the middle of next year and, combined... 15th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Australia - Lessons from Australia’s average inflation targeting Inflation has been close to the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3% inflation target since its launch in the 1990s, but this has come at the expense of soaring house prices and household debt. Australia’s... 15th September 2020 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) Following the greater-than-expected rise in wholesale price inflation last month, it will come as some relief to policymakers that consumer price inflation held steady in August. That said, core... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Wholesale price inflation rose by more than most had expected in August, due mainly to a jump in the core component. A similarly sharp rise in core consumer price inflation last month – data will be... 14th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South African economy stumbles, oil price falls Q2 GDP figures released in South Africa this week weren’t quite as ugly as we had feared, which has prompted us to revise up our full year growth forecast (to -8.5% from -11.0%). Even so, the country... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
BoE Watch When the fog clears more stimulus will be required The initial recovery has been encouraging, but the downside risks remain. We think much more support will eventually be needed in the form of a further £250bn of QE in total (the consensus is £100bn... 10th September 2020 · 8 mins read
China Economics Focus Introducing our new China Activity Proxy (CAP) For over a decade, we have tracked the performance of China’s economy independently from the official GDP figures using our China Activity Proxy (CAP). We are now introducing a revamped version of... 10th September 2020 · 30 mins read
Long Run Focus Will inflation make a comeback? Although low inflation is likely to be the story over the next couple of years, the huge amount of policy stimulus could push up inflation further ahead. Central banks, in theory, have the tools to... 10th September 2020 · 27 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (Aug.) Signs of rising domestic price pressures in Norway raise the chance of a hawkish shift by the Norges Bank at the next meeting. However, with imported price inflation set to peak soon, and services... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Aug.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to a nine-month low of 3.4% y/y in August increases the likelihood that the central bank will resume its easing cycle when it meets later this month. But with... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Consumer Prices (Aug.) Brazilian inflation remained well below the central bank’s target last month, at 2.4% y/y, confirming that price pressures are soft and supporting our view that the Selic rate will stay low for a long... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian inflation to stay below target Egypt’s economic recovery, a fall in the pound and a small rise in global oil prices are likely to cause the headline rate of inflation to drift up over the coming months. But it is unlikely to reach... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Aug.) Headline consumer price inflation slipped last month on the back of easing food price inflation. But core consumer prices rose for the first time since the COVID-19 outbreak and the ongoing recovery... 9th September 2020 · 2 mins read
