Capital Daily Inflation compensation, oil prices and the Omicron variant News of the “Omicron” variant of the coronavirus may have hit both inflation compensation and oil prices recently, but we suspect the correlation between the two will be weaker over the next couple of... 29th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Germany Flash Inflation (Nov.) The increase in German inflation to 6% on the HICP measure was partly due to statistical quirks which should be reversed next month. But even the national CPI measure of inflation rose to 5.2%... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
US Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron impact With cases of the new Omicron variant being reported on several continents now, there is a good chance that it is already present in the United States. We still know almost nothing definitive about... 28th November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2021) The Brazilian inflation reading of 10.7% y/y in mid-November (the same as the October full month figure) provides the first sign that inflation is now stabilising. But with the headline rate still far... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political storm clouds lifting for investors…for now Political developments in Latin America have generally turned in investors’ favour this month. Right-wing José Antonio Kast beat his left-wing rival, Gabriel Boric, in the first round of Chile’s... 24th November 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The surge in Mexico’s inflation to 7.05% y/y in the first two weeks of November – the highest since 2001 – was partly a result of unfavourable base effects, but underlying price pressures were also... 24th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Cyclical pressures set to keep CEE inflation elevated Inflation across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has continued to surge and now sits at its highest level in around 20 years. This can be partly attributed to global factors, such as rising energy... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Headwinds build as financial conditions tighten The sharp tightening of financial conditions in Latin America and Emerging Europe will add to headwinds facing both regions and feeds into our view that recoveries there are entering a slower phase... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US rates bigger worry for EMs than Turkey contagion Turkey’s currency crisis – the lira is down another ~11% against the US dollar today, and ~35% in two months – is now reaching a scale where it raises the question of how badly it will affect other... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Wage growth picking up The sharp slowdown in the pace of hiring in the October Labour Force Survey caught the headlines, but the more important development was the sharp rise in fixed-weight average hourly earnings. Based... 23rd November 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why is inflation different in Asia? Inflation hasn’t emerged as a concern across Emerging Asia in the same way it has in the rest of the emerging world, in part because food price inflation in Asia is much lower, but also because the... 22nd November 2021 · 10 mins read
