Africa Economics Update What next for inflation in South Africa? Weak core inflation is likely to keep the headline rate in South Africa close to the bottom of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range both this year and next. This should allow the central bank to keep... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economic Outlook The long road back to normality India’s failure to contain the coronavirus and the government’s underwhelming policy response mean the economy will suffer its largest drop in annual output on record this year. In addition, the... 7th July 2020 · 16 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jun.) The jump in Turkish inflation in June, to 12.6% y/y, as well as last week’s surprise decision by the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged, reinforces our view that the easing cycle is over... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Jun.) The lack of price pressures in Switzerland is nothing new, but will ensure that the SNB remains poised to combat bouts of upward pressure on the franc for the foreseeable future. 2nd July 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) The increase in euro-zone headline inflation in June was entirely due to higher energy inflation, while the core rate edged down and looks likely to fall further over the rest of the year. 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economies coming roaring back Restrictions on activity have lifted in both countries. While some states in Australia still limit the size of groups and capacity at restaurants, New Zealand has now lifted all domestic restrictions... 30th June 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Fragile demand to keep underlying inflation subdued Over the next few months, inflation will be dominated by oil price effects as the previous slump unwinds and headline rates rise from their current lows. Some components of core inflation, such as... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jun. 2020) Brazil’s broadly steady mid-month inflation reading for June, of 1.9% y/y, masked the fact that a rise in food inflation offset falls in inflation in most other price categories. Weak price pressures... 25th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jun.) The rise in Mexican headline inflation to 3.2% y/y in the middle of June will keep policymakers in a cautious mood – something that’s likely to be reflected in the tone of the statement from tomorrow... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down to 1.1% y/y last month as a further jump in food inflation was more than offset by weaker price pressures in other major categories. But the hike in the VAT rate means that... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Apr.) The plunge in South African inflation to just 3.0% y/y in April is likely to be followed by further declines, allowing the central bank to cut interest rates further. We expect another 75bp of cuts in... 24th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Financial conditions ease but headwinds remain After tightening dramatically in March following the outbreak of the coronavirus, our proprietary index shows that financial conditions in India have eased substantially over the past couple of months... 24th June 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Why did huge monetary stimulus not boost inflation? Premature fiscal policy tightening is part of the reason why inflation did not gain much momentum after the BoJ launched large-scale quantitative easing in 2013. But the main reason why inflation has... 23rd June 2020 · 17 mins read
Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in inflation to -0.4% in May was unexpected but most likely marked the trough. As gasoline prices rebounded further in June and some items are likely to increase in price as... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
