India Economic Outlook

Dire outlook will prompt further monetary easing

The continued rapid spread of COVID-19 in India and the need for prolonged containment measures has plunged the economy into a double-digit contraction this year. A tepid fiscal response means the...

1st October 2020 · 19 mins read

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.)

While Swiss inflation has risen since reaching a trough in June, it is likely to stay very weak in the near term. Meanwhile, the positive set of September manufacturing PMIs from Switzerland and...

1st October 2020 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Light at the end of the tunnel?

The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin...

30th September 2020 · 14 mins read

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.)

The slight fall in South African inflation, to 3.1% y/y in August, is likely to be followed by subdued inflation rates over the next few months. Even so, the SARB’s easing cycle has now come to an end...

30th September 2020 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared

The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in...

30th September 2020 · 10 mins read

Asia Chart Pack

Encouraging signs in Korea

Korea looks to have contained its “second wave” of the virus with minimum cost to the economy. There were just 38 newly confirmed cases in Korea today, which was the lowest since early August and down...

29th September 2020 · 13 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Growth concerns mounting in Nigeria

Nigeria is facing an uphill battle to breathe life into its economic recovery. Following a sharp 6.1% y/y fall in GDP in Q2, more recent figures suggest that activity remains muted. Admittedly, Google...

29th September 2020 · 13 mins read

China Chart Pack

Policymakers refocus on property developer debt

The speed at which officials in China have pivoted from crisis response to another round of restrictions on property developers has caught many by surprise. Developers might have hoped that they would...

28th September 2020 · 11 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Shades of debt relief, rand battered in risk-off mood

The latest debt developments in Angola and Zambia show that, while there has been progress towards debt restructuring in the region, it will be an arduous path for most. Meanwhile, the South African...

25th September 2020 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

CBE likely to continue with gradual monetary easing

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates by 50bps at Thursday’s MPC meeting after a six month pause to the loosening cycle. Policymakers are likely to remain cautious about future easing...

25th September 2020 · 2 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Progress on labour reform, modest MSP hikes

The three labour reform bills approved in parliament this week will do little to boost the slumping economy in the near term but, if the virus is successfully contained, these measures could deliver...

25th September 2020 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Recovery now in a tougher phase

After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This...

24th September 2020 · 12 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM food inflation set to ease

A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the...

24th September 2020 · 3 mins read

Latin America Data Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.)

The further rise in Mexican inflation, to 4.1% over the first half of September, was mainly driven by higher food and fuel prices. We suspect that the central bank will look past this and cut its...

24th September 2020 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Rising cases threaten the recovery in Central Europe

The speed and size of the rise in new coronavirus cases in parts of Central and Eastern Europe is now starting to challenge our optimism about the strength of the recovery. The Czech Republic, Hungary...

24th September 2020 · 16 mins read