Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug.) The rise in Mexican inflation to 4.0% in the first half of August, the upper end of Banxico’s target range, will probably prompt the central bank to slow the pace of its easing cycle. But with... 24th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The consequences of the pandemic for inflation The surprise rise in CPI inflation in July highlights that the effects of the pandemic will not only be deflationary. The hit to supply from the pandemic combined with shifting spending patterns may... 21st August 2020 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update New MPC will have more work to do The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s August policy meeting show that the MPC – of which three members are now due to step down – has turned notably more hawkish on the inflation outlook. But there are... 21st August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation excluding fresh food and energy was just over zero in July and we think it won’t be long before it turns negative. We expect sluggish demand to overwhelm the impact of social distancing... 21st August 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (July) July’s jump in euro-zone core inflation was entirely due to delayed summer sales, so it should reverse in August now that those sales have begun. Meanwhile, social distancing rules appear to have had... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The sharp rise in CPI inflation from +0.6% to +1.0% came as a bit of a surprise, but it is unlikely to mark the start of an upward trend. CPI inflation still looks on track to fall to within a whisker... 19th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Investment will take years to recover If the monthly activity data are anything to go by, GDP data for Q2 (Q1 of FY20/21) due at the end of the month will show that investment slumped by more than 30% y/y. That will prove the bottom given... 19th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker Mexican inflation to drive more Banxico cuts Headline inflation in Mexico looks set to fall towards 3% over the coming months as both food and core inflation soften. We think that will give Banxico scope to cut its policy rate by an additional... 18th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Will the surge in the money supply boost inflation? The money supply has recently been growing at the fastest rate in at least two decades, boosted by government giveaways and generous lending to non-financial firms. However, the expansion in the... 18th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation jumped to 6.1% y/y in July on the back of the tripling of the VAT rate from 5% to 15% and we expect it to hover around this level over the next twelve months. This, combined with the... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) While the rise in headline wholesale price inflation was expected, underlying price pressures appear stickier than we had initially thought. We think these will still ease over the coming months, but... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The unexpected jump in headline inflation last month was the result of core inflation being higher than we had anticipated. We suspect core inflation will eventually ease back due to the weakness of... 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (Jul.) Swedish headline inflation would have fallen further in July had it not been for temporary effects related to car rental prices. And while core inflation edged up from June, against a backdrop of... 12th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Denmark Consumer Prices (Jul.) The lagged impact of exchange rate movements will ensure that inflation remains above the Norges Bank’s target throughout the second half of this year. However, this effect will fade in early-2021 and... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The fall in Egyptian inflation to an eight-month low of 4.2% y/y in July, alongside easing pressure on the pound, means that we think an interest rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting is more likely than... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Consumer price rose last month following floods that disrupted agricultural production. Meanwhile, factory gate deflation continued to ease in July, reflecting the ongoing recovery in economic... 10th August 2020 · 2 mins read
