Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Tunisia and Lebanon politics, Saudi corruption drive Political developments in Tunisia and Lebanon this week have raised hopes that policymakers can tackle their respective economic problems, but there remain plenty of reasons for caution. Elsewhere... 3rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Aug.) The current bout of deflation in Switzerland is likely to persist well into next year, and will continue to be a headache for the SNB, particularly given the recent rise in the franc against the US... 3rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Aug.) Turkish inflation was unchanged between July and August, at 11.8% y/y, but the lira rather than inflation is likely to determine the central bank’s next moves. If the lira’s recent stability proves... 3rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Deflation in the Gulf to persist The coronavirus crisis has caused domestic demand across the Gulf to slump and deflation is likely to persist, with the key exception of Saudi Arabia. Most places are well placed to deal with the... 2nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation close to peaking Ongoing virus-related supply disruptions as well as one-off factors such as phone tariff hikes have kept inflation higher than we had anticipated over recent months. But with food inflation set to... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fragile EU-Turkey relations, MNB in a bind The Turkish central bank's tightening of monetary conditions has helped to stabilise the lira but the further ratcheting up of tensions with the EU and threat of measures beyond sanctions mean that... 28th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Update Deflation set to deepen further The slump in underlying inflation in Tokyo in August was mostly driven by subsidies to domestic travel as part of the Go To travel campaign. But even when we strip out the impact of those subsidies... 28th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Fed adopts average inflation target Chair Jerome Powell announced this morning that the Fed will be adopting what he described as a “flexible form of average inflation targeting”, which we expect will trigger additional policy stimulus... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) South African inflation will probably hover near July’s reading, of 3.2% y/y, in the coming months and, as the economic recovery wavers, we think that more monetary easing lies in store. 26th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation, to 2.3% y/y in the first half August, was relatively modest and we expect the headline rate to remain well below the central bank’s 2020 target of 4% over the... 25th August 2020 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch Bank to resume bond purchases in earnest The Reserve Bank of Australia isn’t keen on providing more monetary stimulus and instead wants the government to do the heavy lifting. As such, the Bank will certainly keep policy settings unchanged... 25th August 2020 · 7 mins read
