India Chart Pack Services “outperformance” unlikely to last In contrast to many other economies, the 20% y/y slump in India’s services sector in Q2 was less pronounced than that in industry, which collapsed by almost 40% y/y. But we doubt that the... 24th September 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian food inflation pushed up the headline rate to 2.7% y/y in the first half of September but, with core inflation still extremely soft, we doubt the central bank will be... 23rd September 2020 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Loosening cycle is not over yet We agree with market and analyst expectations that the Reserve Bank’s new-look MPC will keep rates on hold at the conclusion of its meeting on Thursday 1st October. But with inflation set to drop... 23rd September 2020 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: onus on fiscal policy after rates left unchanged The Bank of Thailand’s (BoT) decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5% came as no surprise, and rates look set to remain unchanged for some time to come. The central bank hinted at further... 23rd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN: economic weakness reigns supreme Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to lower the benchmark rate, from 12.50% to 11.50%, shows that policymakers have put aside their concerns about inflation and are increasingly... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Forint weakness to prevent further rate cuts in Hungary The decision by Hungary’s central bank to leave its base rate on hold at 0.60% today highlights that the central bank is in a bind due to high inflation and concerns about the forint. Further interest... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s food inflation spike won’t trouble the BCB Rising food inflation in Brazil is likely to remain a cause for concern among politicians over the rest of the year, but with core inflation extremely weak, it’s not going to spook the central bank... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Focus Globalisation will stall in the wake of COVID-19 Global supply chains have functioned well this year despite the disruption of social distancing and lockdowns, and people in many places appear more appreciative of migrants. But the pandemic is... 22nd September 2020 · 25 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank bides its time, but leaves rate cut on the table The Riksbank’s decision to leave the repo rate on hold at zero this morning was never in doubt, but it left the option of a rate cut firmly on the table, linking it explicitly to moves in inflation... 22nd September 2020 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan: end of the easing cycle Pakistan’s central bank (SBP) left interest rate unchanged today at 7.0% and appeared to signal the end of its recent easing cycle. With the economy recovering well from the coronavirus crisis and... 21st September 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) While headline inflation fell in August, excluding the government’s domestic travel subsidy scheme it showed a renewed pick up. However, we still think inflation will fall much further into negative... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Risk of inflation lower in the euro-zone than elsewhere If it is sustained for long enough, the policy stimulus being implemented in the euro-zone could eventually cause inflation to take off. However, we think it is more likely that policy is normalised... 17th September 2020 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB easing cycle probably over, rates to stay low Today’s decision by South African Reserve Bank’s to keep its benchmark rate unchanged probably means that further easing is unlikely to materialise. Even so, monetary conditions are likely to remain... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch SNB to hold again; Norges Bank set for hawkish shift We expect the Swiss National Bank and the Norges Bank to both leave their policy settings unchanged next Thursday (24th September). But while the former will no doubt sound as dovish as ever... 17th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Aug.) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low in August and we suspect that it will fall even further in September. Looking ahead, underlying price pressures are likely to remain weak. 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Selic rate to stay low for longer than most expect The dovish tone of the Brazilian central bank’s statement from yesterday’s meeting (at which the Selic rate was left at 2.00%) supports our view that the policy rate will remain at its current... 17th September 2020 · 3 mins read
