UK Data Response Consumer Prices (May) May’s further fall in inflation is probably only the beginnings of a prolonged period of very soft price pressure that we think will prompt the Bank of England to announce a total of £350bn more QE... 17th June 2020 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (May) Wholesale price inflation data for May show a broad-based easing in price pressures. This reinforces our view that inflation shouldn’t be a barrier to further policy loosening, and we expect the RBI... 15th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (May) & Industrial Production (Apr.) 12th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Swedish inflation in May ties in with signs that the economy has got off comparatively lightly by virtue of its light-touch lockdown. That said, the May figure was skewed in part by... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) The further fall in core consumer prices in May was mainly driven by continued declines in travel-sensitive categories including airline fares and motor vehicle insurance. There is still little to... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (May 2020) The decline in Brazilian inflation to a multi-decade low of 1.9% y/y in May will give Copom plenty of room to cut interest rates when it meets next week. We’ve pencilled in a 50bp cut at that meeting... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation and the impact of the VAT hike The tripling of the VAT rate from July will cause inflation in Saudi Arabia to jump, but the impact may be relatively less severe than it was when VAT was first introduced at the start of 2018. That... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The fall in Egyptian inflation to 4.7% y/y in May leaves the headline rate well below the lower bound of the central bank’s target range and, with policymakers’ focus shifting away from supporting the... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway Consumer Prices (May) Recent falls in the krone contributed to the pick-up in core inflation in Norway in May, but this effect is likely to fade in H2. Accordingly, the Norges Bank will be in no rush to tighten monetary... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation slipped further last month due to falling food prices, while subdued demand continued to weigh on factory gate prices. But food prices aside, the recent decline in inflation... 10th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (May) The pick-up in Mexican inflation to 2.8% y/y in May, from 2.2% y/y in April, is unlikely to deter the central bank from continuing its easing cycle. We expect a 50bp rate cut at its meeting later this... 9th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Inflation set to fall sharply The sharp decline in activity in Australia is set to result in much weaker inflation before long. And even though output will recover rapidly over the coming months as virus restrictions are eased, we... 9th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in May and the underlying picture is that inflation has been much weaker than many expected just a few months ago. Price pressures are likely to remain muted which... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Low inflation limits downside risks for bonds If we are right that the world faces a period of low inflation over the next few years investors are unlikely to begin anticipating tighter monetary policy and so undermine the returns from government... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Downgrade, locusts, activity edging up The downgrade of India’s sovereign rating by Moody’s this week had little impact on financial markets, and we think that bond yields will remain close to their current low level over the coming months... 5th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switz. CPI (May), Sweden Priv. Sector Prod. (Apr.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in May came as no surprise, but April’s private sector production data from Sweden add to signs that the economy has reaped some benefit from its light-touch... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
