Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switz. CPI (May), Sweden Priv. Sector Prod. (Apr.) The further decline in Swiss inflation in May came as no surprise, but April’s private sector production data from Sweden add to signs that the economy has reaped some benefit from its light-touch... 4th June 2020 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation should not constrain policymakers Daily price data give a strong indication that food inflation dropped in May, most likely as supply disruptions eased a touch and agricultural activity was allowed to resume. With global oil prices... 4th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (May) The rise in Turkish inflation in May, to 11.4% y/y, suggests that the effects of the sharp fall in the lira in the early part of the month more than offset the impact of weaker domestic demand on... 3rd June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB needs to keep an eye on inflation expectations Inflation expectations are not always a good leading indicator of inflation. However, the decline in most measures of inflation expectations in the past two months may be a cause for concern at the... 1st June 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) The further fall in euro-zone inflation in May took the headline rate to within a whisker of zero and downward pressure on prices is set to persist while demand remains exceptionally weak and... 29th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Normal still a long way off As the lockdowns have largely come to an end in both countries, output is starting to recover. In New Zealand, most activity is now allowed to resume, though gatherings are limited to 100 people. In... 29th May 2020 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to stay low for a long time The impact of the crisis so far has been overwhelmingly disinflationary, and with demand likely to be depressed for a long time to come, inflation is set to remain very weak. A period of entrenched... 27th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Hours worked plunge to 25-year low The Labour Force Survey shows that the number of hours worked dropped by 28% between February and April. As the bulk of the hours lost have been in relatively low-productivity sectors, GDP should not... 26th May 2020 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2020) The fall in Brazilian inflation to just 2.0% y/y in the first half of this month provides plenty of space for Copom to follow up this month’s 75bp interest rate cut with more easing. For now, we have... 26th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of May, to 2.8% (from 2.1% in April), may prompt the central bank to slow the pace of easing (or even pause its cycle) at next... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) Headline inflation turned negative in April for the first time since 2016 adjusting for the impact of October’s sales tax hike. We expect it to weaken further over the coming months as services and... 22nd May 2020 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus Inflation not the easy way to cut public debt burdens One of the key consequences of the coronavirus is set to be a sharp rise in government debt burdens. We have already looked at whether governments can just tolerate their rise in debt here. But this... 20th May 2020 · 31 mins read
Consumer Prices (Apr.) As energy prices are now rebounding, inflation is unlikely to fall much below the -0.2% recorded in April. Nevertheless, we do not expect it to rise back above 0.5% until at least the end of the year. 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Apr.) We suspect that harvesting and supply issues rather than stockpiling caused the increase in food inflation in April, and that these effects will persist in the summer. Nonetheless, with core inflation... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Lockdown hasn’t flattened the curve yet Despite a stringent lockdown that has lasted nearly two months, new recorded cases of COVID-19 in India remain on a sharp upward trajectory and hit a record high yesterday. The true number of cases is... 20th May 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) The energy-driven slump in inflation in April is unlikely to concern the Bank of England much, but it might find the easing in underlying price pressures a little harder to ignore. And with the... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
