Core inflation more likely to decline than rise Despite the recent pick-up in wage growth, we continue to think that core inflation will decline over the next 12 months. 15th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising Polish inflation won’t prompt policy change The rise in Polish inflation to a seven-year high in July and likelihood that it will stay above target over the next 18 months will keep the focus of the MPC on tightening. But we don’t think this... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) July’s inflation figures may dampen speculation that the Bank of England will follow in the Fed’s footsteps and cut interest rates. With stronger pay growth and the fall in the pound likely to ensure... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (July) The fall in Swedish inflation in July provides further confirmation, if it were needed, that the Riksbank will have to revise down its forecasts for the repo rate at its next meeting, on 5th September... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Wholesale price inflation is not the preferred measure of inflation for India’s policymakers but even so, the weakness in the headline rate in July increases the likelihood of another rate cut at the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July, which followed a similar-sized gain in June, suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Headline inflation held steady in July and remains comfortably below the central bank’s (RBI) 4.0% target, laying the foundations for at least one more interest rate cut later this year. But with... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly More bad Swedish data; Norges Bank to hold rates The Norges Bank is likely to leave its key policy rate unchanged next Thursday but we expect it to leave the door open for a rate hike in September. More generally, though, the case for the Bank... 9th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (July) The fact that core inflation in Norway remained above target for the ninth month in a row in July will keep the Norges Bank in tightening mode for now. But with prices pressures set to ease, we think... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jul.) Weakening demand dragged producer price inflation into negative territory last month even as surging pork prices continued to push up consumer price inflation. Both have downbeat implications for the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in July, to 3.8% y/y, keeps an interest rate cut at next week’s policy meeting on the table. It will be a close call, but on balance we think the central bank... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) The drop in Egyptian inflation to a four year low of 8.7% y/y in July reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle at its next meeting with a 100bp cut in the overnight... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kashmir tensions to have limited economic impact Developments in Kashmir this week have again raised tensions between the Indian and Pakistani governments. History suggests the most likely scenario from here is that, after plenty of posturing... 8th August 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Headline inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in July and will be used by the central bank as vindication of its decision to reduce interest rates for the fourth... 8th August 2019 · 4 mins read
