India Economics Update RBI’s loosening cycle has further to run The Reserve Bank delivered a (slightly) larger-than-expected rate cut today and has left the door open for further easing. If soft surveys are correct in suggesting that there is limited slack in the... 7th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (July) The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a further... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Turkish inflation in July is likely to be temporary and followed by chunky falls in the coming months. Accordingly, so long as the lira remains stable, the central bank will follow up last... 5th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s Inflation Report, Russia sanctions, Polish inflation The Turkish central bank’s optimistic inflation forecasts add weight to our view that monetary easing is likely to go too far and will ultimately have to reverse course. Elsewhere, although the rise... 2nd August 2019 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Unemp. (June) & HICP (July) The raft of weak economic data published this morning strengthens the case for the ECB to announce a package of stimulus measures at its next meeting in September. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a breather and leave rates on hold at 1.0% at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday the 6th of August following the back to back rate cuts in June and July... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) Underlying inflation remained subdued in the second quarter and we think increasing spare capacity in the Australian economy means it will fall further below the RBA’s 2-3% target over the next year. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
RBI Watch Under the wings of doves The MPC – now even more firmly under the control of doves following the recent surprise resignation of Viral Acharya – is likely to use the current low rate of headline inflation as justification for... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Is core inflation about to surprise on the upside? The rebound in the three-month annualised rate of core PCE inflation to a seven-year high of 2.5% in June, together with evidence that unit labour costs have been rising more rapidly than thought... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary: surveys point to a fresh pick-up in core inflation A raft of survey data suggests that last month’s fall in Hungarian core inflation is unlikely to mark the start of a downward trend – as the central bank anticipates. We expect that underlying price... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts The Treasurer is currently reviewing the RBA’s inflation target before he signs the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. We doubt there will be any major changes and Governor Lowe gave a... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of this month, to 3.8% y/y, makes an interest rate cut at the central bank’s next policy meeting on 15th August increasingly likely. 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) South African inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of the target range in June, which strengthens our view that policymakers will follow up this month’s 25bp rate cut with another one in September... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
