Asset Allocation Chart Pack Interactive Markets Chart Pack We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2025 and beyond. Note: This Chart Pack is updated... 13th March 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term. 6th November 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026... 5th November 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The calm before the storm for currencies? Currency markets are ending the week broadly unchanged, on net, leaving the US dollar near a three-month high ahead of next week’s pivotal election. With polls continuing to point to a very tight race... 1st November 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s bond rally, fiscal & rate risks, Mexico outlook Optimism about Argentina’s policy shift has driven the spreads on sovereign dollar bonds to their narrowest level in over five years, but there’s no sign that policymakers will address the overvalued... 1st November 2024 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Focus The US election and market implications for EMs We think that if vice president Harris wins the US presidential election next week, she would be more likely to stick to policy continuity, and EM risk premia would remain low. If former president... 1st November 2024 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP... 31st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights uneven nature of recovery The Q3 RICS commercial survey painted a somewhat mixed picture of the market. There was a slight improvement in investment and capital value expectations, but rental expectations were revised down... 31st October 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Big tax rises, but economy may end up stronger This Budget is big, both in the way it defines the government’s plans and the money it raises and spends. The key point is that it loosens fiscal policy relative to previous plans and is therefore... 30th October 2024 · 16 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Oct. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have declined further across EMs. Our currency crisis risk indicator was at yet another multi-year low in Q3 and sovereign debt risks have eased across large parts of Africa... 30th October 2024 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Demand from EMs would help cushion Trump tariffs EMs are playing a growing role as substitute markets for Chinese exporters that face rising trade barriers in DMs. A second trade war with a re-elected President Trump would only accelerate that shift... 30th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on markets & the US election With just a week to go in the pivotal US election, the race remains close and markets look increasingly tense. We see three key points to consider as the vote draws nearer. 29th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
