Global Markets Focus The threats from US reliance on foreign financial flows This Focus examines the large financial inflows to the US that have accompanied the country’s persistent current account deficit. It argues that those inflows face several growing threats which risk... 29th September 2025 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar enjoys a broad rally The US dollar is on track to end the week stronger against most other major currencies thanks largely to investors further paring back their expectations for Fed rate cuts. Although political... 26th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Trump bails out Milei, and meets with Lula next week The big news out of Latin America this week was the US government’s announcement that it would “do what is needed” to support Argentina. Unsurprisingly, local markets reacted positively. It might give... 26th September 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Europe Outlook – Why the ECB could cut rates in 2026 2nd October 2025, 3:00PM BST The ECB insists interest rates are "in a good place", but it's a view which we think will shift in the coming year.
Africa Economic Outlook Looser monetary policy, stronger growth Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa is set to pick up over the next couple of years helped by a more stable macro environment, lower inflation and looser monetary policy, with many central banks set to... 26th September 2025 · 19 mins read
India Economics Weekly Will the weak rupee constrain the RBI? The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision next week is likely to be a close call. While the weakness of the rupee is a consideration for the bank, external vulnerabilities are far smaller... 26th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Swiss-Japanese yield divergence Yields in Switzerland and Japan may diverge even further over the next couple of years. But we don’t think Japan’s escape from zero rates will diminish the yen’s relative appeal as a safe haven. 25th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US throws a lifeline to the Argentinian peso US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s renewed pledge to “do what is needed” to support Argentina in a post on X earlier today, including purchases of Argentinian sovereign US dollar bonds and a... 24th September 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Fed puts the dollar on firmer footing The US dollar is set to end the week up against most other G10 currencies after a strong couple of days, driven by investors paring back their expectations for rate cuts after this week’s FOMC meeting... 19th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s decertification, Brazil’s slowdown The Trump administration’s determination this week that Colombia had failed to meet its counter-narcotics obligations won’t have immediate economic implications, but it does make Colombia more... 19th September 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Sep. 2025) EM GDP growth generally held up well in H1 but we think it will soften over the second half of the year as US tariffs, tighter fiscal policy and slowing wage growth bite. The inflation outlook is... 17th September 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury yields & dollar still likely to rebound Another set of robust US activity data suggest that the US economy remains in decent shape despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. This suggests to us that the FOMC will stick to a more... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for dollar ahead of the FOMC We no longer expect much of a rebound in the US dollar this year as the FOMC is about to resume rate cuts. But given the extent of Fed easing already discounted, our base case remains that the dollar... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FOMC likely to bring some relief for struggling greenback The dollar has weakened a little further this week after US inflation and jobs data again came out on the soft side. This probably cements a 25bp rate cut next week’s FOMC meeting. But we continue to... 12th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA current account, Ghana GDP, Nigeria fiscal policy Data out this week showed that South Africa’s current account deficit has widened, but the shortfall is still small and suggests the rand will continue to hold up and that the Reserve Bank can cut... 12th September 2025 · 6 mins read
