Global Markets Update Rally in South African assets to run out of steam After a record-breaking year, we think the rally in South African assets will lose momentum, given that there is little scope for risk premia to compress much further and we expect precious metals... 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly The dollar and MENA, US-Iran tensions, Saudi project delays This year's dollar rout has taken Gulf currencies down too, but the impact on inflation is likely to be small - and inflation is very low in any case. Elsewhere, Egypt stands to be a beneficiary from... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy still matters for the greenback We continue to think that a cautious Fed will mean Treasury yields rise a little and the US dollar strengthens, despite recent developments in the latter. 29th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update MAS to stay on hold despite hawkish tilt Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB on the FX sidelines, but negative rates coming We do not think that the SNB has intervened in FX markets in recent days despite the Swiss franc’s large appreciation. Instead, we think policymakers are likely to combat any disinflationary pressure... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The macro implications of a weaker dollar Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially... 28th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB respond to the rising euro? The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Four key points on Bessent’s intervention gambit As the dollar continues to drop in the wake of intervention chatter, here are four key takeaways from an extraordinary few days. 27th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26) Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –... 27th January 2026 · 0 mins read
Event Markets Drop-In: The dollar outlook – economics vs politics and our 2026 forecasts 28th January 2026, 1:00PM GMT What has driven the dollar’s recent sharp fall? Are dedollarisation fears back in charge amid heightened political uncertainty? What support will the US macro narrative lend the currency?
FX Markets Update What to make of the dollar rout Our view is that most fundamental factors still point to a stronger dollar in 2026. But renewed uncertainty around the Trump administration’s approach to US economic and foreign policy threatens to... 26th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Plenty to worry markets even if the Fed is uneventful It looks set to be a fairly quiet Fed meeting this week as far as markets are concerned, and perhaps even a quiet year on the policy front despite the background noise. But there are plenty of other... 26th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are US markets too complacent about political risk? Although our base case is that the recovery in US markets will broadly continue, risk premia remain narrow and the chance of a larger repricing is probably high. 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily No Greenland news is good news for markets US-Europe tensions over Greenland, and renewed US policy uncertainty more broadly, has led to speculation of a return of the “sell America” narrative that dominated financial markets in the first half... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences 9th February 2026, 8:00AM GMT Our Japan economists were online the day after the election to analyse the results, explore what they mean for Japan’s fiscal and monetary balance, and discuss the implications for Ja
Capital Daily Could markets prompt Trump to change his plans for Greenland? The latest triple sell-off in US equities, Treasuries, and the dollar would probably have to become much larger before the ‘guardrails’ of the financial markets prompted Donald Trump to change his... 20th January 2026 · 4 mins read
